Today (Sept. 11th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Russian soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4050 yuan/tonne, and Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4470 yuan/tonne. The market is negative when the demand in Tianjing port is normal; the global soybean supply is huge with a bumper harvest in South America; CONAB estimates show the Brazil 2019 soybean production is 115 million tonnes, hitting a second-high record. However, China's market is propped up as the distributed soybeans are not many. Besides, US soybean import is restricted with no progress of US-China trade talks. The market is mixed and short-term prices likely maintain stable.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today stable with a drop of 0.02 yuan/kg and most purchase activities suspending. The cottonseed market is weighted on due to low operation rate, the almost ending of old seed purchase, and a low purchase willingness for new cottonseed, of which moisture and price are both high. However, the price adjustment is limited by the tight supply before the massive marketing of new cottonseed. The price is expected to fall back in the wake of new cottonseed marketing, and buyers are suggested to take a wait-and-see attitude.

Summary: U.S. soybeans closed higher last night on short covering, and oil futures snap off declines to rebound on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil increases by 10-50 yuan/tonnes and palm oil goes up by 30-60 yuan/tonne, both in tepid trading. Some mills in South China have no choice but to reduce operation rate due to swelling soybean meal inventories, so that soybean oil inventory also drops slightly. Meanwhile, the import cost of South American soybeans remains high due to its tight supply outlook in the fourth quarter, and the import margins of South American soybean oil have also seen slight price inversion again. Moreover, China will for the first time allow the import of soybean meal from Argentina as both sides are to sign an agreement in Buenos Aires on September 11, which is bearish to domestic meal prices. Therefore, domestic oil futures market today is stimulated to post huge rises by the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. However, the rises are then smaller again since the market is still waiting for the trade talks between China and the United States in Washington in early October, and also the arrival of palm oil at ports will be substantial in September and October. The oil market now can seek little impetus to rebound due to dismal demand. Overall, short-term oil spot market may follow futures to fluctuate frequently and may stay relatively weak later due to the completion of peak festival demand and the upcoming sales of U.S. soybeans in the new season. Buyers are suggested to maintain light stockpiles. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,020-6,230 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up by 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,020-6,030, Rizhao traders 6,050, Zhangjiagang traders 6,230, and Guangzhou traders 6,140). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4,820-4,890 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 30-60 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 4,850-4,860, up 30; Rizhao traders not offered; Zhangjiagang traders 4,890, up 60; Guangzhou traders 4,820, up 40; and Xiamen not offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil remains basically stable in price today, of which it settles at 7,430-7,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,430, flat; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,520, flat). The relationship between Beijing and Ottawa seemed to post a subtle change with both sides accepting the nomination of a new ambassador from each other, which came along with the confirmation of the U.S.-China trade talks in Washington in early October, so it is likely to see some improvement in their relationship. Besides, more and more Chinese importers are now seeking quotations on Australian rapeseed that is to go marketing in October, the arrival of palm oil at port will also be huge in September and October, and domestic market will basically complete their buying for the holiday in mid-September. Pressured by a better-than-expected rapeseed supply prospect and a weaker demand outlook, rapeseed oil market will find it difficult to post further rises and may fluctuate frequently at the high level. Buyers are suggested to maintain light stockpiles and watch out for risks of slight declines. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable due to the low operation rate and almost non-inventory. Besides, today oils on DCE stop decline and rebound, while spot soybean oil and palm oil is up 10-50 yuan/tonne and 30-60 yuan/tonne respectively. However, the market is dragged down when the small-packing oil restocking is about to end; demand becomes weak; and the consumption of cottonseed oil for blending is not a lot. Cottonseed oil is likely to see a proper drop with fluctuations after the massive marketing of new cottonseed. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.