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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 12/9/2019

2019-09-12 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,030  3,526  3,958  150 -582 3,767 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,980  3,494  3,958  150 -614 3,757 
Costal Shandong 5,990  2,960  3,477  3,958  150 -632 3,759 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,900  3,454  3,958  150 -654 3,728 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,460  3,958  150 -649 3,721 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,030  3,526  3,871  150 -495 3,656 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,980  3,494  3,871  150 -527 3,647 
Costal Shandong 5,990  2,960  3,477  3,871  150 -545 3,649 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,900  3,454  3,871  150 -567 3,618 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,460  3,871  150 -562 3,611 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,030  3,586  3,316  150  120  2,878 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,980  3,554  3,316  150  88  2,868 
Costal Shandong 5,990  2,960  3,536  3,316  150  70  2,871 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,900  3,515  3,316  150  49  2,838 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,521  3,316  150  55  2,830 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,030  3,467  3,217  150  100  2,904 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,980  3,434  3,217  150  67  2,895 
Costal Shandong 5,990  2,960  3,417  3,217  150  50  2,897 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,900  3,393  3,217  150  26  2,868 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,398  3,217  150  31  2,861 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,030  3,496  3,560  150  -214  3,301 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,980  3,464  3,560  150  -246  3,291 
Costal Shandong 5,990  2,960  3,447  3,560  150  -263  3,293 
Jiangsu 6,120  2,900  3,423  3,560  150  -287  3,263 
Guangdong 6,150  2,900  3,429  3,560  150  -281  3,256 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,110  3,180  3,522  3,500  160  -138  3,353 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,960  3,030  3,378  3,620  160  -402  3,533 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,980  3,344  3,640  160  -456  3,550 
Boxing, Shandong 6,010  3,000  3,362  3,660  160  -458  3,573 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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