Today (Sept. 12th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean were lower last night on good weather conditions in production regions. And today, meal futures also continue losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today on several pieces of bearish news: Donald Trump tweeted that his administration would postpone the deadline of additional tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods to Oct. 15 from Oct 1, and China was said to buy more U.S. agricultural products in a show of goodwill ahead of upcoming face-to-face trade talks between the two countries; and Argentina’s agriculture ministry said some 5 million tonnes of soybean meal would be exported to China in early 2020. Spot bids for soybean meal drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,880-2,970 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,970, Shandong 2,910-2,970, Jiangsu 2,890-2,900, Dongguan 2,890-2,900, and Guangxi 2,920-2,950). New U.S. soybean is coming soon, and a fresh round of trade talks has been scheduled. Besides, the demand for feed is subdued by the contagious African swine fever that is decreasing the hog herd, so that some southern crush mills are choked with soybean meal again. Therefore, soybean meal market will likely fluctuate and stay relatively weak. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly report on Thursday night, which is forecast to be neutral, as both soybean production and inventory in the new season will be lowered down. For the week after the release of the report in the past decade, U.S. soybeans were closed lower for nine years. Due to the sales pressure of new soybeans, U.S. soybeans in this period is easy to close lower. Meal futures on the DCE today have slowed down losses after previous declines in row, so buyers with inadequate stocks are suggested to make replenishment in small batch on the dips and remain cautious in driving up prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price keeps stable today, of which it settles at 2,290-2,420 yuan/tonne (Guangxi 2,320, stable; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,290, stable). The supply of rapeseed is getting tightened due to the unsolved issues between China and Canada, and oil mills are willing to prop up prices on account of high import cost of South American soybeans. But the marketing of US soybean is approaching, and the trade relations between two countries have eased.On the other hand, soybean crush has reached over 180 mln tonnes which has stayed at a high level in recent two weeks. However, the African swine fever is still spreading, and the recovery of demand for meal products from aquaculture in South China is below expectation, thus, there is little improvement in terminal demand.Besides, the marketing of new Australian rapeseed fills the gap of Canadian rapeseed. In short, the rapeseed meal market is dragged down by all these negative factors above to fluctuate to adjust. Buyers with insufficient inventory can wait for low and stable prices to make small replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal keeps steady today with negotiating space at some ports. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,100-9,400 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,700-10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and 9,700-10,200 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 142,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 88,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 14,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. The prices stay stable from foreign merchants today: it is at 1,160 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,330 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,300 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne. The demand growth is slow from domestic aquaculture, and hog feed also has low demand for fishmeal due to a smaller hog herd under the impact of the ASF. Under tepid terminal demand and with continues arrivals of new Peruvian fishmeal, domestic inventory keeps growing. Domestic fishmeal market is thus subdued. Overall, short-term trend is predicted to be weak. 

Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable due to the low operation rate and almost non-inventory. However, the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever with the number of live hogs in end-August declining by about 15% month on month based on our survey. Moreover, soybean meal is dropping away from cottonseed meal. Today meals on DCE further decline, and spot soybean meal drops 10-20 yuan/tonne, which is is due to the Argentina Agriculture Ministry announcement of exporting 5 million tonnes of soybean meal to China in early 2020, and the optimistic outlook of US-China trade talks as there is a rumour that China may buy more US agriculture products after Trump said US will move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th. Cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate in narrow range before the massive marketing of cottonseed, and then have a risk of falling. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.