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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 16/9/2019

2019-09-16 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  3,030  3,536  4,069  150 -683 3,895 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,960  3,478  4,069  150 -741 3,897 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,950  3,472  4,069  150 -747 3,895 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,890  3,454  4,069  150 -766 3,859 
Guangdong 6,170  2,880  3,448  4,069  150 -772 3,857 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  3,030  3,536  3,968  150 -582 3,767 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,960  3,478  3,968  150 -640 3,770 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,950  3,472  3,968  150 -646 3,767 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,890  3,454  3,968  150 -665 3,731 
Guangdong 6,170  2,880  3,448  3,968  150 -671 3,729 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  3,030  3,596  3,314  150  132  2,863 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,960  3,538  3,314  150  74  2,866 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,950  3,533  3,314  150  69  2,863 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,890  3,515  3,314  150  51  2,825 
Guangdong 6,170  2,880  3,509  3,314  150  45  2,823 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  3,030  3,476  3,272  150  54  2,962 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,960  3,418  3,272  150  -4  2,965 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,950  3,412  3,272  150  -10  2,962 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,890  3,392  3,272  150  -30  2,928 
Guangdong 6,170  2,880  3,386  3,272  150  -36  2,926 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  3,030  3,506  3,560  150  -204  3,289 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,960  3,448  3,560  150  -262  3,291 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,950  3,442  3,560  150  -268  3,289 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,890  3,423  3,560  150  -287  3,254 
Guangdong 6,170  2,880  3,417  3,560  150  -293  3,251 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,160  3,180  3,530  3,500  160  -130  3,343 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  3,030  3,386  3,620  160  -394  3,523 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,960  3,328  3,640  160  -472  3,550 
Boxing, Shandong 6,030  3,000  3,365  3,660  160  -455  3,569 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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