Today (Sept. 16th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: After the United States postponed the deadline of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, China began to exempt some retaliatory tariffs and recover the purchases of a certain amount of U.S. farm products and bought at least 600,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans last Thursday. Thereby, U.S. soybeans surged last Friday night, but meal futures fluctuate at a narrow range as the purchase of low-cost US soybeans is bearish to domestic market. Spot bids for soybean meal drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne from last Thursday in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,880-2,970 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,970, Shandong 2,910-2,970, Jiangsu 2,870-2,900, Dongguan 2,880-2,890, and Guangxi 2,910-2,930). China opened its markets to the import of Argentine soybean meal. Moreover, the amount of hog is decreasing due to the spread of the African swine fever, so that mills in South China is chocked with swelling soybean meal inventory again. U.S. soybean is about to go marketing. Besides, China and the United States have resumed their trade talks. These will keep meal prices under check. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines slightly in price today, of which it settles down 10 yuan/tonne at 2,280-2,360 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,280; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,280, down 10). Feed factories have minimized the adding proportion of rapeseed meal. Moreover, the overall demand for meals remains delicate due to the spread of swine fever, so there is not much improvement in demand. Besides, Australian rapeseed will go marketing in October, which can fill part of the gap of Canadian rapeseed, so buyers remain cautious in purchasing rapeseed meal. However, rapeseed supply gets tightened due to the unsolved issues between China and Canada. Also, coastal rapeseed meal inventory slightly dropped to 38,000 tonnes last week because of reduced operation rate. In consequence, price declines of rapeseed meal are limited. Hence, short-term rapeseed meal market may fluctuate weakly at a narrow range. Buyers can stay on the sideline or buy on immediate demand.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal keeps steady today with negotiating space. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,100-9,400 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,700-10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and 9,700-10,200 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 140,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 88,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 14,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. The prices stay stable from foreign merchants today: it is at 1,160 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,330 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,300 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,520 USD/tonne. The demand growth is slow from domestic aquaculture, and hog feed also has low demand for fishmeal due to a smaller hog herd under the impact of the ASF. Under tepid terminal demand and with continues arrivals of new Peruvian fishmeal, domestic inventory keeps growing. Domestic fishmeal market is thus subdued. Overall, short-term trend is predicted to be weak.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some drops of 10-150 yuan/tonne, when the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever with the number of live hogs in end-August declining by 9.8% month on month, by 38.7% year on year, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; soybean meal is dropping away from cottonseed meal; the United States decided to make adjustments to the additional tariffs to be imposed on Chinese goods on Oct. 1, and China will exclude some agricultural products from the additional tariffs on U.S. goods and purchase a certain amount of U.S. farm produce, over 600,000 tonnes of US soybeans last Thursday; today spot soybean meal is stable with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the downward potential is limited by low operation rate and inventory. Cottonseed meal is likely to stay stable with a downside trend before the massive marketing of new cottonseed, and have a higher risk of decline after the massive marketing. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 7.07)