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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 17/9/2019

2019-09-17 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,010  3,030  3,536  4,079  150 -693 3,888 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,000  2,960  3,478  4,079  150 -751 3,905 
Costal Shandong 6,010  2,950  3,472  4,079  150 -757 3,888 
Jiangsu 6,160  2,890  3,454  4,079  150 -776 3,852 
Guangdong 6,170  2,880  3,448  4,079  150 -782 3,848 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,090  3,030  3,551  3,976  150 -575 3,758 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,000  3,514  3,976  150 -612 3,775 
Costal Shandong 6,090  2,980  3,511  3,976  150 -615 3,758 
Jiangsu 6,240  2,890  3,469  3,976  150 -657 3,722 
Guangdong 6,260  2,900  3,480  3,976  150 -646 3,717 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,090  3,030  3,612  3,322  150  140  2,853 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,000  3,574  3,322  150  102  2,871 
Costal Shandong 6,090  2,980  3,572  3,322  150  100  2,853 
Jiangsu 6,240  2,890  3,531  3,322  150  59  2,815 
Guangdong 6,260  2,900  3,543  3,322  150  71  2,810 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,090  3,030  3,490  3,279  150  61  2,953 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,000  3,454  3,279  150  25  2,969 
Costal Shandong 6,090  2,980  3,450  3,279  150  21  2,953 
Jiangsu 6,240  2,890  3,406  3,279  150  -23  2,919 
Guangdong 6,260  2,900  3,418  3,279  150  -11  2,914 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,090  3,030  3,520  3,560  150  -190  3,270 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,000  3,484  3,560  150  -226  3,286 
Costal Shandong 6,090  2,980  3,481  3,560  150  -229  3,270 
Jiangsu 6,240  2,890  3,438  3,560  150  -273  3,235 
Guangdong 6,260  2,900  3,449  3,560  150  -261  3,230 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,240  3,180  3,542  3,500  160  -118  3,327 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,090  3,030  3,398  3,620  160  -382  3,507 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,000  3,363  3,640  160  -437  3,546 
Boxing, Shandong 6,050  3,000  3,368  3,660  160  -452  3,565 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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