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China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 37, 2019)

2019-09-17 www.cofeed.com
I.National stocks

This week (as of Sept. 13), edible palm oil stock totals 567,500 tonnes at domestic ports, down 1.9% from 578,950 tonnes last week and up 39,800 tonnes or 7.5% from 527,700 tonnes the same period last month, and up 102,800 tonnes or 22.12% from 464,700 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 96,750 tonnes, up 4,450 tonnes or 4.8% from 92,300 tonnes last week.

The edible palm oil stocks further decline on the delay of palm oil arrivals, down to below 570,000 tonnes. However, the trading is light because the restocking ended, and the blending of palm oil with low melting point is limited by the drop in temperature. But with the average arrivals of 450,000 tonnes for next two month, stocks is predicted to rise.

Region
/Port

Edible Palm Oil Stocks0'000 mT

Industrial Palm Oil Stocks

W37

W36

Change

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

W37

W36

Change

Tianjin Port

11.15

10.45

0.7

78.40%

-5.91%

2.6

2.4

0.2

Hebei

0.7

0.3

0.4

-12.50%

40.00%

0.2

0

0.2

Shandong Port

2.67

3.03

-0.36

-1.10%

-21.47%

1.35

0.48

0.87

East China

15.75

18

-2.25

-12.01%

7.88%

3.3

4

-0.7

Guangdong

19.85

21

-1.15

37.04%

98.10%

2.05

2.1

-0.05

Guangxi

3.78

1.565

2.215

96.88%

8.00%

0.175

0.25

-0.075

Fujian

2.85

3.55

-0.7

-25.97%

9.62%

0

0

0

Total

56.75

57.895

-1.145

7.54%

22.12%

9.675

9.23

0.445



Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for September this week is unchanged from last week to settle at 670,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for Oct. this week is up 50,000 tonnes from last week at 620,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 500,000 tonnes and  industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate of import volume for Nov. this week is unchanged from last week at 620,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments


Date

Sailing Schedule

CNFUSD/mT

Duty Paid(RBM/mT)

DCE(RBM/mT)

Import Margin

2019/9/10

Oct-19

560

4808

4796

-12

2019/9/11

Oct-19

562.5

4857

4848

-9

2019/9/12

Oct-19

557.5

4764

4784

20

Date

Cargoes

Sailing Schedule

CNFUSD/mT

Duty Paid(RBM/mT)

Qty.0'000 mT

2019/9/10

1

Oct

560

4808

1.2

2019/9/12

1

Oct

556

4752

1.2