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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 18/9/2019

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,030  3,543  4,107  150 -714 3,934 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  2,980  3,504  4,107  150 -753 3,934 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,990  3,514  4,107  150 -744 3,931 
Jiangsu 6,220  2,900  3,473  4,107  150 -784 3,893 
Guangdong 6,190  2,890  3,459  4,107  150 -798 3,900 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,030  3,543  3,981  150 -588 3,774 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  2,980  3,504  3,981  150 -627 3,774 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,990  3,514  3,981  150 -618 3,772 
Jiangsu 6,220  2,900  3,473  3,981  150 -658 3,733 
Guangdong 6,190  2,890  3,459  3,981  150 -672 3,740 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,030  3,604  3,294  150  160  2,828 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  2,980  3,564  3,294  150  120  2,828 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,990  3,574  3,294  150  130  2,825 
Jiangsu 6,220  2,900  3,535  3,294  150  91  2,785 
Guangdong 6,190  2,890  3,521  3,294  150  77  2,792 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,030  3,483  3,231  150  102  2,901 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  2,980  3,443  3,231  150  62  2,901 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,990  3,453  3,231  150  72  2,899 
Jiangsu 6,220  2,900  3,411  3,231  150  30  2,863 
Guangdong 6,190  2,890  3,397  3,231  150  16  2,869 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,030  3,513  3,560  150  -197  3,279 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  2,980  3,473  3,560  150  -237  3,279 
Costal Shandong 6,060  2,990  3,483  3,560  150  -227  3,277 
Jiangsu 6,220  2,900  3,442  3,560  150  -268  3,240 
Guangdong 6,190  2,890  3,428  3,560  150  -282  3,247 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,200  3,180  3,536  3,500  160  -124  3,335 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,030  3,392  3,620  160  -388  3,515 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  2,980  3,352  3,640  160  -448  3,540 
Boxing, Shandong 6,050  3,000  3,368  3,660  160  -452  3,565 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.