Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 18/9/2019

2019-09-18 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,050	3,030	3,543	4,107	150	-714	3,934
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	2,980	3,504	4,107	150	-753	3,934
Costal Shandong	6,060	2,990	3,514	4,107	150	-744	3,931
Jiangsu	6,220	2,900	3,473	4,107	150	-784	3,893
Guangdong	6,190	2,890	3,459	4,107	150	-798	3,900

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,050	3,030	3,543	3,981	150	-588	3,774
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	2,980	3,504	3,981	150	-627	3,774
Costal Shandong	6,060	2,990	3,514	3,981	150	-618	3,772
Jiangsu	6,220	2,900	3,473	3,981	150	-658	3,733
Guangdong	6,190	2,890	3,459	3,981	150	-672	3,740

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,050	3,030	3,604	3,294	150	160	2,828
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	2,980	3,564	3,294	150	120	2,828
Costal Shandong	6,060	2,990	3,574	3,294	150	130	2,825
Jiangsu	6,220	2,900	3,535	3,294	150	91	2,785
Guangdong	6,190	2,890	3,521	3,294	150	77	2,792

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,050	3,030	3,483	3,231	150	102	2,901
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	2,980	3,443	3,231	150	62	2,901
Costal Shandong	6,060	2,990	3,453	3,231	150	72	2,899
Jiangsu	6,220	2,900	3,411	3,231	150	30	2,863
Guangdong	6,190	2,890	3,397	3,231	150	16	2,869

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,050	3,030	3,513	3,560	150	-197	3,279
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	2,980	3,473	3,560	150	-237	3,279
Costal Shandong	6,060	2,990	3,483	3,560	150	-227	3,277
Jiangsu	6,220	2,900	3,442	3,560	150	-268	3,240
Guangdong	6,190	2,890	3,428	3,560	150	-282	3,247

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,200	3,180	3,536	3,500	160	-124	3,335
Dalian, Liaoning	6,050	3,030	3,392	3,620	160	-388	3,515
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	2,980	3,352	3,640	160	-448	3,540
Boxing, Shandong	6,050	3,000	3,368	3,660	160	-452	3,565
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

Print Close