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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 19/9/2019

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,040  3,545  4,087  150 -692 3,915 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  2,970  3,492  4,087  150 -745 3,913 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,990  3,508  4,087  150 -729 3,913 
Jiangsu 6,200  2,910  3,477  4,087  150 -760 3,872 
Guangdong 6,160  2,890  3,454  4,087  150 -784 3,882 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,040  3,545  3,973  150 -578 3,771 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  2,970  3,492  3,973  150 -631 3,769 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,990  3,508  3,973  150 -615 3,769 
Jiangsu 6,200  2,910  3,477  3,973  150 -646 3,728 
Guangdong 6,160  2,890  3,454  3,973  150 -670 3,737 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,040  3,606  3,300  150  156  2,843 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  2,970  3,552  3,300  150  102  2,841 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,990  3,568  3,300  150  118  2,841 
Jiangsu 6,200  2,910  3,539  3,300  150  89  2,797 
Guangdong 6,160  2,890  3,515  3,300  150  65  2,808 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,040  3,485  3,229  150  106  2,906 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  2,970  3,432  3,229  150  53  2,903 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,990  3,448  3,229  150  69  2,903 
Jiangsu 6,200  2,910  3,415  3,229  150  36  2,865 
Guangdong 6,160  2,890  3,392  3,229  150  13  2,874 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,040  3,515  3,560  150  -195  3,286 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  2,970  3,462  3,560  150  -248  3,284 
Costal Shandong 6,030  2,990  3,478  3,560  150  -232  3,284 
Jiangsu 6,200  2,910  3,446  3,560  150  -264  3,244 
Guangdong 6,160  2,890  3,423  3,560  150  -287  3,254 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,170  3,190  3,539  3,500  160  -121  3,341 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,020  3,040  3,395  3,620  160  -385  3,521 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,030  2,970  3,341  3,640  160  -459  3,544 
Boxing, Shandong 6,070  3,000  3,371  3,660  160  -449  3,561 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.