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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--19/9/2019

Today (Sept. 19th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
 
Oilseeds:

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price declines today, among which Russian soybean is  3570 yuan/tonne, and Canada soybean with 42% protein is down 30 yuan/tonne from yesterday at 4720 yuan/tonne. The market is bearish when traders make a lower quotation to clear their stocks amid the marketing of new soybeans; and as Chinese deputy negotiator visited the United States on Wednesday for trade consultations, to pave the way for the 13th round of China-U.S. high-level economic and trade consultations in October in Washington, more US soybeans would enter China's market if the consultations went well. Short-term prices likely maintain stable with weak momentum.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today stable with a rise of 0.04 yuan/kg and most purchase activities suspending, when the new cottonseed is small in quantity and high in price. The down stream takes wait-and-see attitude and oil mills are not eager to purchase. The price is expected to fall a bit in the wake of marketing. Buyers should stay on the sideline for now.

Oils: 

Summary: U.S. soybean futures eased last night on mild weather across the U.S. Midwest that lessened risks that frost could hurt the late-planted soybean crop and on worries that a recent wave of Chinese soy purchases had ended as the USDA did not confirm large purchase by China, but oil futures are narrowing losses slightly on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil drop by 10-30 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Oil futures rebounded sharply on the DCE early this week driven by the spike in crude oil price, but it lasted for only two days and then retreated with the potential for a quick recovery in crude oil production. The factors that matter now are fundamentals in oil market. China placed large orders for US soybeans amid a trade detente, US soybeans are going to be harvested and sold, domestic market will not enter into peak demand until December, and Chinese buyers bought substantial palm oil this week due to its import profits. Overall, oil market is predicted to go a little weak and go volatile, and buyers are suggested to keep light stocks. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,030-6,300 yuan/tonne in 
domestic coastal areas, mostly down by 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,030-6,040, Rizhao traders 6,100, Zhangjiagang traders 6,300, and Guangzhou traders 6,140). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4,840-4,970 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 4,860-4,870, down 20; Rizhao traders 4,970, down 20; Zhangjiagang traders 4,920, down 10; Guangzhou traders 4,840, down 20; and Xiamen not offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steps up in price today, of which it settles up 30-40 yuan/tonne at 7,420-7,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,420, up 40; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,520). The vice-ministerial level of trade talks between China and the US are going to be held in Washington today and tomorrow, which will lay the groundwork for the high-level negotiations in Washington in October. China now start to make substantial purchases of US soybeans amid a detente with the US, and palm oil arrivals will also be huge in September and October. The problem is that rapeseed oil market has already been influenced by its price gap with soybean oil and palm oil. Meanwhile, the peak demand for packing oils before the festival has been over, and market participants are cautious while awaiting the extradition hearing against HUAWEI Meng Wanzhou on Sept. 23. Depressed by those factors, short-term rapeseed oil market may fluctuate frequently at the high level, but but the range will be small. Buyers can wait or keep light stocks. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable due to the low operation rate and almost non-inventory. However, the market is dragged down when the small-packing oil restocking is about to end; the consumption of cottonseed oil for blending is not a lot; today oils on DCE further decline, while spot soybean oil and palm oil are down 10-30 yuan/tonne; and staple oils  fundamentals become negative. Cottonseed oil is likely to see stay stable with fluctuations before the massive marketing of new cottonseed, and then see a proper drop after the massive marketing. Buyers can take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.

(USD $1=CNY 7.07)