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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 20/9/2019

2019-09-20 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,040  3,530  4,030  150 -650 3,863 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  2,960  3,463  4,030  150 -717 3,867 
Costal Shandong 5,970  2,970  3,481  4,030  150 -699 3,855 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,910  3,464  4,030  150 -716 3,817 
Guangdong 6,100  2,880  3,434  4,030  150 -746 3,824 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,040  3,530  3,979  150 -599 3,798 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  2,960  3,463  3,979  150 -666 3,803 
Costal Shandong 5,970  2,970  3,481  3,979  150 -648 3,791 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,910  3,464  3,979  150 -665 3,752 
Guangdong 6,100  2,880  3,434  3,979  150 -695 3,759 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,040  3,590  3,287  150  153  2,847 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  2,960  3,522  3,287  150  85  2,852 
Costal Shandong 5,970  2,970  3,540  3,287  150  103  2,839 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,910  3,525  3,287  150  88  2,799 
Guangdong 6,100  2,880  3,495  3,287  150  58  2,806 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,040  3,471  3,209  150  112  2,898 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  2,960  3,404  3,209  150  45  2,903 
Costal Shandong 5,970  2,970  3,421  3,209  150  62  2,892 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,910  3,402  3,209  150  43  2,855 
Guangdong 6,100  2,880  3,373  3,209  150  14  2,862 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,040  3,501  3,560  150  -210  3,305 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  2,960  3,434  3,560  150  -276  3,310 
Costal Shandong 5,970  2,970  3,451  3,560  150  -259  3,298 
Jiangsu 6,130  2,910  3,433  3,560  150  -277  3,261 
Guangdong 6,100  2,880  3,404  3,560  150  -306  3,268 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,090  3,190  3,526  3,500  160  -134  3,357 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,940  3,040  3,382  3,620  160  -398  3,537 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,920  2,960  3,315  3,640  160  -485  3,566 
Boxing, Shandong 6,030  3,000  3,365  3,660  160  -455  3,569 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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