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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--20/9/2019

Today (Sept. 20th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price declines today, among which Russian soybean is  not offered, and Canada soybean with 42% protein is down 50 yuan/tonne from yesterday at 4670 yuan/tonne. The market is bearish when traders make a lower quotation to clear their stocks amid the marketing of new soybeans; and as US-China delegates has restarted a face-to-face consultation in Washington, to pave the way for high-level economic and trade consultations in October according to Bloomberg, it's expected that the outlook of the talks will be good and China is very likely to further purchase US soybeans. Short-term prices likely maintain stable with weak momentum.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are partially stable with fluctuations of 0.04~0.06 yuan/kg and most purchase activities suspending. A few supply of new cottonseed is supportive of price. In some regions, oil mills make panic purchase. However, prices in some regions decline as most mills take a wait-and-see attitude and do not start operations, which is due to the uncertainty over the environmental policy ahead of China's National-Day holiday. The price is likely to make a proper drop in the wake of marketing, and buyers could take wait-and-see attitude.


Summary: US soybean futures inched higher last night on stronger-than-expected weekly export sales data and face-to-face trade talks between US and Chinese deputies in Washington, but oil futures further drop on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot market, soybean oil and palm oil slip by 20-80 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. While new soybeans are to be harvested and go marketing soon in the United States and Chinese importers continue their palm oil purchases this week, the peak demand for oils in China will not start until December. Besides, the market is also influenced by the trade detente between China and the United States. Domestic oil market has been under pressure and is predicted to follow futures to decline in the short term. But some Shandong and northern mills have got a plant for downtime during the National Day holiday and due to the parade, so soybean oil inventory will post smaller growth. The decline in short-term oil market may be thus restricted. The main trend of the oil market may stay relatively weak with fluctuations, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to replenish appropriately on the dips. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,970-6,230 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 20-70 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5,970-5,980, Rizhao traders 6,040, Zhangjiagang traders 6,230, and Guangzhou traders 6,080-6,090). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4,760-4,890 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 20-80 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 4,800-4,810, down 20; Rizhao traders 4,890, down 80; Zhangjiagang traders 4,850, down 70; Guangzhou traders 4,760, down 20; and Xiamen not offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil drop in price today, of which it settles down 30-40 yuan/tonne at 7,370-7,500 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,370, down 40; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,480, down 40). Rapeseed oil market has already been influenced by its price gap with soybean oil and palm oil. While China made several large purchases of US soybeans with the detente in bilateral trade relations, Chinese importers are buying up on lucrative palm oil this week and new soybeans in US will be harvested and go marketing soon, the peak demand for oils will not start until December in China. These are all factors capping rapeseed oil market, so it may still fluctuate at the high levels in the short term and buyers can wait for the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable due to the low operation rate and almost non-inventory. However, the market is dragged down when the small-packing oil restocking is about to end; the consumption of cottonseed oil for blending is not a lot; the US soybean exports is better than expected; an US-China face-to-face consultation restarts in Washington; today oils on DCE further decline, while spot soybean oil and palm oil are down 20-80 yuan/tonne; and staple oils demand is slack. Cottonseed oil is likely to see stay stable with fluctuations before the massive marketing of new cottonseed, and then see a proper drop. Buyers can stay on the sideline.

(USD $1=CNY 7.07)