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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 23/9/2019

2019-09-23 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,930  3,050  3,536  4,003  150 -617 3,831 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,000  3,491  4,003  150 -662 3,838 
Costal Shandong 5,960  3,010  3,510  4,003  150 -643 3,824 
Jiangsu 6,110  2,930  3,476  4,003  150 -677 3,787 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,450  4,003  150 -703 3,790 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,930  3,050  3,536  3,952  150 -566 3,766 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,000  3,491  3,952  150 -611 3,773 
Costal Shandong 5,960  3,010  3,510  3,952  150 -592 3,759 
Jiangsu 6,110  2,930  3,476  3,952  150 -626 3,723 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,450  3,952  150 -652 3,725 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Sep. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,930  3,050  3,596  3,266  150  180  2,823 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,000  3,550  3,266  150  134  2,830 
Costal Shandong 5,960  3,010  3,570  3,266  150  154  2,815 
Jiangsu 6,110  2,930  3,537  3,266  150  121  2,777 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,511  3,266  150  95  2,780 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,930  3,050  3,477  3,189  150  138  2,875 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,000  3,432  3,189  150  93  2,882 
Costal Shandong 5,960  3,010  3,451  3,189  150  112  2,869 
Jiangsu 6,110  2,930  3,415  3,189  150  76  2,834 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,389  3,189  150  50  2,837 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,930  3,050  3,507  3,560  150  -203  3,308 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,000  3,462  3,560  150  -249  3,315 
Costal Shandong 5,960  3,010  3,481  3,560  150  -230  3,301 
Jiangsu 6,110  2,930  3,445  3,560  150  -265  3,265 
Guangdong 6,100  2,900  3,420  3,560  150  -291  3,268 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,080  3,200  3,533  3,500  160  -127  3,359 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,930  3,050  3,389  3,620  160  -391  3,539 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,000  3,344  3,640  160  -456  3,570 
Boxing, Shandong 6,030  3,020  3,381  3,660  160  -439  3,569 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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