China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 38, 2019)

2019-09-24 www.cofeed.com

I．National stocks

This week (as of Sept. 20th), edible palm oil stock totals 558,850 tonnes at domestic ports, down 1.5% from 567,500 tonnes last week and down 16,050 tonnes or 2.8% from 57,490 tonnes the same period last month, and up 84,050 tonnes or 17.7% from 474,800 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 95,800 tonnes, down 950 tonnes or 0.9% from 96,750 tonnes last week.

The arrivals this week is not a lot. And the trading volume increase on the rises of domestic oils spots and futures as the attack on Saudi last weekend leads to a surge of crude oil. The trading volume this week is 23,100 tonnes, up 216.44% from 7,300 tonnes last week. However, the blending of palm oil with low melting point is limited by the drop in temperature. And with the average monthly arrivals of over 500,000 tonnes for next two month, stocks is predicted to rise.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W38	W37	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W38	W37	Change
Tianjin Port	11.65	11.15	0.5	115.70%	1.30%	2.6	2.6	0
Hebei	0.55	0.7	-0.15	-21.40%	-8.33%	0.15	0.2	-0.05
Shandong Port	3.965	2.67	1.295	59.80%	36.72%	1.17	1.35	-0.18
East China	16.3	15.75	0.55	-15.98%	2.52%	3.5	3.3	0.2
Guangdong	17.45	19.85	-2.4	-23.46%	57.92%	1.88	2.05	-0.17
Guangxi	3.02	3.78	-0.76	2.03%	-3.51%	0.28	0.175	0.105
Fujian	2.95	2.85	0.1	-21.33%	22.92%	0	0	0
Total：	55.885	56.75	-0.865	-2.79%	17.70%	9.58	9.675	-0.095

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for Sept. this week is down 50,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 620,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate for Oct. this week goes up 50,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 670,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate of import volume for Nov. is unchanged from last week to settle at 620,000 tonnes (refined palm olein 500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2019/9/17	Oct. 2019	582.5	4975	5016	41
2019/9/18	Nov. 2019	570	4870	4888	18
2019/9/18	Dec. 2019	580	4954	4888	-66
2019/9/19	Nov. 2019	570	4876	4820	-56
2019/9/19	Dec. 2019	557.5	4939	4820	-119
2019/9/20	Nov. 2019	562.5	4807	4790	-17
2019/9/20	Dec. 2019	570	4870	4790	-80

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2019/9/16	1	Oct	571	4878	1.2
2019/9/17	6	Oct	573-575	4895-4911	7.2
2019/9/17	1	Nov	575	4911	1.2
2019/9/17	7	Dec	578-580	4937-4954	8.4
2019/9/18	4	Nov	565	4828	4.8
2019/9/19	1	Nov	560	4792	1.2
2019/9/20	0

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