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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 24/9/2019

2019-09-24 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,920  3,040  3,526  4,050  150 -674 3,893 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  2,990  3,474  4,050  150 -726 3,909 
Costal Shandong 5,950  3,010  3,508  4,050  150 -692 3,885 
Jiangsu 6,070  2,930  3,468  4,050  150 -732 3,857 
Guangdong 6,050  2,880  3,425  4,050  150 -775 3,861 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,920  3,040  3,526  3,987  150 -611 3,813 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  2,990  3,474  3,987  150 -663 3,830 
Costal Shandong 5,950  3,010  3,508  3,987  150 -629 3,806 
Jiangsu 6,070  2,930  3,468  3,987  150 -669 3,777 
Guangdong 6,050  2,880  3,425  3,987  150 -712 3,782 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,920  3,040  3,586  3,284  150  152  2,848 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  2,990  3,532  3,284  150  98  2,866 
Costal Shandong 5,950  3,010  3,568  3,284  150  134  2,841 
Jiangsu 6,070  2,930  3,529  3,284  150  95  2,810 
Guangdong 6,050  2,880  3,485  3,284  150  51  2,815 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,920  3,040  3,467  3,201  150  116  2,893 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  2,990  3,415  3,201  150  64  2,909 
Costal Shandong 5,950  3,010  3,449  3,201  150  98  2,886 
Jiangsu 6,070  2,930  3,407  3,201  150  56  2,859 
Guangdong 6,050  2,880  3,364  3,201  150  13  2,863 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,920  3,040  3,497  3,560  150  -213  3,310 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  2,990  3,444  3,560  150  -266  3,326 
Costal Shandong 5,950  3,010  3,479  3,560  150  -231  3,303 
Jiangsu 6,070  2,930  3,438  3,560  150  -272  3,275 
Guangdong 6,050  2,880  3,394  3,560  150  -316  3,279 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,070  3,190  3,523  3,500  160  -137  3,361 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,920  3,040  3,379  3,620  160  -401  3,541 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  2,990  3,328  3,640  160  -472  3,580 
Boxing, Shandong 6,020  3,010  3,371  3,660  160  -449  3,571 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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