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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--24/9/2019

Today (Sept. 24), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Russian soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 3750 yuan/tonne, and Canada soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4600 yuan/tonne. The market is bearish when traders are clearing their stocks in the wake of new soybean marketing. Moreover, more US soybeans would be imported as China purchased 10 cargoes of US soybean for Oct.-Dec. shipment on Monday, sources said; And according to Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He would visit America for trade talks next week.  Short-term prices likely maintain stable with weak momentum.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are stable with most purchase activities suspending. The market is weighted on when the oil mills in Shandong have almost halted operation due to the increasing pressure from environmental protection for military parade on National Day; the trading volume is small as most oil mills take wait and see attitude with only a few making some purchases; the supply increases on the marketing of cottonseed. The prices are likely to see a proper drop in the wake of the increasing volume of cottonseed supply. 


Summary: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China’s trade delegation had not canceled the farm tour, but just delayed it at the request of US side, and they would reschedule it at a different time. Chinese importers on Monday bought 10 cargoes, or about 600,000 tonnes, of soybeans for shipment from October to December. US soybeans closed with gains yesterday on fresh export deals, but oil futures fluctuate to fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today due to the detente between China and the US. In the spot markets, soybean oil falls 20-50 yuan/tonne and palm oil by 30-80 yuan/tonne in lukewarm trading, in spite of some low-level purchases. Buyers will make final replenishment for bulk oils ahead of the holiday, but the trading volume will be tepid after 30,000 tonnes yesterday. In the meantime, soybean oil inventory increased by 1.3% to 1.348 mln tonnes as soybean crush rose by 1.6% to 1.83 mln tonnes last week. The fundamentals now are bearish in domestic oil market. Besides, US soybeans in season will be harvested and go marketing soon. Therefore, domestic oil market has come under pressure. Overall, short-term oil spot prices will follow futures to fluctuate to stay relatively weak, but the price declines will be small as most mills in Shandong and North China will suspend production due to the National Day holiday and the parade. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment on the dips. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,940-6,170 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5,940-5,950, Rizhao traders 6,010, Zhangjiagang traders 6,170, and Guangzhou traders 6,070). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4,680-4,780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 30-80 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 4,770-4,780, down 30; Rizhao traders not offered; Zhangjiagang traders 4,780, down 60; Guangzhou traders 4,680-4,700, down 80; and Xiamen not offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil declines in price today, of which it settles down 50-80 yuan/tonne at 7,300-7,480 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,300, down 80; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,430, down 70). The demand for rapeseed oil is subdued by its huge price gap with soybean oil and palm oil, the inventories of which continued to increase last week. The imports of palm olein in October and November reach 550,000 tonnes and 500,000 tonnes, respectively due to its import margins. Oils are now in adequate supply in China. Besides, US farmers are about to harvest and sell their soybeans. These are dragging down rapeseed oil market. The disclosure hearing for HUAWEI Meng Wanzhou has begun on Monday, but will take sometime. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are decreasing, so there will be limited downside space for rapeseed oil market. Overall, rapeseed oil prices will likely fluctuate frequently at the high level, but the range will be small. Buyers can wait or take hand-to-mouth buying.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable due to the operation halts in Shandong oil mills for the National Day and military parade, and insufficient goods supply. However, the market is weighted on when the packing-oil restocking is over; the consumption of cottonseed oil for blending is limited; Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China’s trade delegation didn't cancel a scheduled farm tour in the U.S., but actually delayed that at U.S. request, and was going to reschedule that at a different time; China purchased 10 cargoes, 600,000 tonnes of US soybean for Oct.-Dec. shipment on Monday; Amid the ease of US-China trade tension, today spot soybean oil declines 20-50 yuan/tonne, and palm oil falls 30-80 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed oil is likely to stay stable with some fluctuations before National Day, and move with weak trend after that, owing to the rising of operation rates. Buyers can stay on the sideline.

(USD $1=CNY 7.07)