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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 25/9/2019

2019-09-25 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,070  3,539  4,097  150 -708 3,967 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,495  4,097  150 -752 3,971 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,030  3,519  4,097  150 -729 3,952 
Jiangsu 6,080  2,960  3,494  4,097  150 -753 3,914 
Guangdong 6,030  2,900  3,437  4,097  150 -810 3,926 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,070  3,539  3,994  150 -605 3,836 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,495  3,994  150 -649 3,841 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,030  3,519  3,994  150 -626 3,822 
Jiangsu 6,080  2,960  3,494  3,994  150 -650 3,783 
Guangdong 6,030  2,900  3,437  3,994  150 -707 3,795 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,070  3,597  3,288  150  159  2,868 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,554  3,288  150  116  2,873 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,030  3,578  3,288  150  140  2,853 
Jiangsu 6,080  2,960  3,554  3,288  150  116  2,813 
Guangdong 6,030  2,900  3,497  3,288  150  59  2,825 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,070  3,480  3,192  150  138  2,895 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,437  3,192  150  95  2,900 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,030  3,459  3,192  150  117  2,882 
Jiangsu 6,080  2,960  3,433  3,192  150  91  2,845 
Guangdong 6,030  2,900  3,376  3,192  150  34  2,856 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,070  3,509  3,560  150  -201  3,324 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,466  3,560  150  -244  3,329 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,030  3,489  3,560  150  -221  3,310 
Jiangsu 6,080  2,960  3,463  3,560  150  -247  3,272 
Guangdong 6,030  2,900  3,407  3,560  150  -303  3,284 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,010  3,220  3,538  3,500  160  -122  3,373 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,070  3,394  3,620  160  -386  3,553 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,350  3,640  160  -450  3,582 
Boxing, Shandong 6,000  3,030  3,384  3,660  160  -436  3,575 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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