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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 26/9/2019

2019-09-26 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Sep shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,050  3,523  4,086  150 -713 3,953 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,495  4,086  150 -741 3,957 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,030  3,520  4,086  150 -716 3,936 
Jiangsu 6,060  2,940  3,474  4,086  150 -762 3,905 
Guangdong 6,030  2,890  3,429  4,086  150 -807 3,912 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,050  3,523  3,983  150 -610 3,822 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,495  3,983  150 -638 3,827 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,030  3,520  3,983  150 -613 3,805 
Jiangsu 6,060  2,940  3,474  3,983  150 -659 3,774 
Guangdong 6,030  2,890  3,429  3,983  150 -704 3,781 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,050  3,582  3,266  150  166  2,841 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,554  3,266  150  138  2,846 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,030  3,580  3,266  150  164  2,823 
Jiangsu 6,060  2,940  3,535  3,266  150  119  2,790 
Guangdong 6,030  2,890  3,489  3,266  150  73  2,797 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,050  3,464  3,183  150  131  2,884 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,437  3,183  150  104  2,888 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,030  3,461  3,183  150  128  2,868 
Jiangsu 6,060  2,940  3,413  3,183  150  80  2,838 
Guangdong 6,030  2,890  3,369  3,183  150  36  2,845 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,050  3,494  3,560  150  -216  3,324 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,466  3,560  150  -244  3,329 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,030  3,491  3,560  150  -219  3,308 
Jiangsu 6,060  2,940  3,444  3,560  150  -266  3,277 
Guangdong 6,030  2,890  3,399  3,560  150  -311  3,284 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,010  3,200  3,522  3,500  160  -138  3,373 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,860  3,050  3,378  3,620  160  -402  3,553 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,840  3,020  3,350  3,640  160  -450  3,582 
Boxing, Shandong 5,990  3,020  3,374  3,660  160  -446  3,577 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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