Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 27/9/2019

2019-09-27 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,750	3,020	3,478	4,095	150	-767	3,991
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,800	3,010	3,480	4,095	150	-765	3,978
Costal Shandong	5,900	2,980	3,475	4,095	150	-770	3,954
Jiangsu	5,950	2,930	3,445	4,095	150	-800	3,942
Guangdong	6,000	2,880	3,415	4,095	150	-830	3,930

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,750	3,020	3,478	4,015	150	-687	3,889
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,800	3,010	3,480	4,015	150	-685	3,877
Costal Shandong	5,900	2,980	3,475	4,015	150	-690	3,853
Jiangsu	5,950	2,930	3,445	4,015	150	-720	3,841
Guangdong	6,000	2,880	3,415	4,015	150	-750	3,829

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,750	3,020	3,536	3,251	150	135	2,849
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,800	3,010	3,538	3,251	150	137	2,837
Costal Shandong	5,900	2,980	3,534	3,251	150	133	2,811
Jiangsu	5,950	2,930	3,505	3,251	150	104	2,799
Guangdong	6,000	2,880	3,475	3,251	150	74	2,786

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,750	3,020	3,421	3,179	150	92	2,904
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,800	3,010	3,422	3,179	150	93	2,892
Costal Shandong	5,900	2,980	3,416	3,179	150	87	2,870
Jiangsu	5,950	2,930	3,386	3,179	150	57	2,858
Guangdong	6,000	2,880	3,355	3,179	150	26	2,847

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,750	3,020	3,450	3,560	150	-260	3,350
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,800	3,010	3,451	3,560	150	-259	3,338
Costal Shandong	5,900	2,980	3,446	3,560	150	-264	3,315
Jiangsu	5,950	2,930	3,415	3,560	150	-295	3,303
Guangdong	6,000	2,880	3,385	3,560	150	-325	3,291

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	5,900	3,170	3,480	3,500	160	-180	3,395
Dalian, Liaoning	5,750	3,020	3,336	3,620	160	-444	3,575
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,800	3,010	3,336	3,640	160	-464	3,590
Boxing, Shandong	5,940	3,020	3,366	3,660	160	-454	3,587
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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