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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 27/9/2019

2019-09-27 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  3,020  3,478  4,095  150 -767 3,991 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,010  3,480  4,095  150 -765 3,978 
Costal Shandong 5,900  2,980  3,475  4,095  150 -770 3,954 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,930  3,445  4,095  150 -800 3,942 
Guangdong 6,000  2,880  3,415  4,095  150 -830 3,930 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  3,020  3,478  4,015  150 -687 3,889 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,010  3,480  4,015  150 -685 3,877 
Costal Shandong 5,900  2,980  3,475  4,015  150 -690 3,853 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,930  3,445  4,015  150 -720 3,841 
Guangdong 6,000  2,880  3,415  4,015  150 -750 3,829 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  3,020  3,536  3,251  150  135  2,849 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,010  3,538  3,251  150  137  2,837 
Costal Shandong 5,900  2,980  3,534  3,251  150  133  2,811 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,930  3,505  3,251  150  104  2,799 
Guangdong 6,000  2,880  3,475  3,251  150  74  2,786 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  3,020  3,421  3,179  150  92  2,904 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,010  3,422  3,179  150  93  2,892 
Costal Shandong 5,900  2,980  3,416  3,179  150  87  2,870 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,930  3,386  3,179  150  57  2,858 
Guangdong 6,000  2,880  3,355  3,179  150  26  2,847 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  3,020  3,450  3,560  150  -260  3,350 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,010  3,451  3,560  150  -259  3,338 
Costal Shandong 5,900  2,980  3,446  3,560  150  -264  3,315 
Jiangsu 5,950  2,930  3,415  3,560  150  -295  3,303 
Guangdong 6,000  2,880  3,385  3,560  150  -325  3,291 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,900  3,170  3,480  3,500  160  -180  3,395 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  3,020  3,336  3,620  160  -444  3,575 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,010  3,336  3,640  160  -464  3,590 
Boxing, Shandong 5,940  3,020  3,366  3,660  160  -454  3,587 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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