Today (Sept. 29), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean closed lower on Friday on benign weather in production regions, and Dalian Commodity Exchange is closed today and meal futures rose in after-hour trading on Friday. As mills are out of inventory pressure and stalling sales, spot soybean meal prices increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne from Friday with lukewarm trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,890-3,020 yuan/tonne in coastal regions (Tianjin 3,020, Shandong 2,980-3,000, Jiangsu 2,900-2,930, Dongguan 2,890-2,920, and Guangxi 2,910-2,930). The inventory of soybean meal is expected to fall with sharp declines in operation rates during the National Day holidays. The hog amount is likely to jump higher quickly now that local governments are striving for recovering the production. Besides, the Trump administration officials are discussing ways to limit U.S. investors’ portfolio flows into China, according to a report by Bloomberg. The market analysts said that the US might take strategies to put pressure on China ahead of their trade talks on October 10th. The twists and turns in bilateral relations also send meal prices higher. But there are still factors curbing price growth, including small hog herds under the lingering African swine fever, and forthcoming selling pressure of US soybeans and trade talks. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in driving up prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises slightly in price today, of which it settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,290-2,400 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,400, up 10; Fujian 2,300, stable).Some oil mills plan to halt the operation with the coming of National Day holiday. Besides, rapeseed meal supply is getting tightened amid the issues between China and Canada, so rapeseed crush in coastal areas will keep falling, and oil mills tend to prop up prices. However, the trade war is easing, and U.S. soybean will be harvested and go marketing. Additionally, the overall demand for meals is delicate due to the spread of African swine fever, and there is not much improvement in terminal demand. As of this Friday, rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas has increased by 5% to 32,000 tonnes. In short, these are all dragging down rapeseed meal market. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term rapeseed meal may mainly fluctuate at a narrow range.Buyers with insufficient inventory can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is quoted steadily with some negotiating space today. Quotation at ports: it is priced quoted steadily at 9,000-9,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,300-9,400 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,600-10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 9,900-10,300 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and 9,500-9,700 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 130,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 82,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 14,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices are stable from foreign merchants today: it is 1,090 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,290-1,310 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,300 USD/tonne. Domestic consumption of fishmeal is dented by smaller hog herds under the African swine fever and the lukewarm demand from the aquaculture, and its stocks have mounted higher at ports; thus, fishmeal prices are subdued in China. But the shipment turns better now with the coming of the National Day holiday, so holders are propping up prices. Overall, fishmeal price is predicted to stay stable in the near term.

Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a drop of 200 yuan/tonne for some prices when the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever and the upside down price of soybean meal from cottonseed meal. However, the downward potential is curbed when the cottonseed price is high; a few oil mills are operating before National Day and military parade amid insufficient cottonseed supply; soybean oil mills are under a selling-loath mood amid no inventory pressure; spot soybean meal is up 10-20 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal price is likely to stay stable with some fluctuations before National Day, and then go weak on a rising operation rates. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.