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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 30/9/2019

2019-09-30 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,730  3,050  3,498  4,050  150 -702 3,938 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,780  3,040  3,500  4,050  150 -700 3,926 
Costal Shandong 5,880  3,020  3,503  4,050  150 -697 3,902 
Jiangsu 5,920  2,950  3,455  4,050  150 -745 3,893 
Guangdong 5,970  2,910  3,433  4,050  150 -767 3,881 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,730  3,050  3,498  3,991  150 -643 3,864 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,780  3,040  3,500  3,991  150 -641 3,852 
Costal Shandong 5,880  3,020  3,503  3,991  150 -638 3,828 
Jiangsu 5,920  2,950  3,455  3,991  150 -686 3,818 
Guangdong 5,970  2,910  3,433  3,991  150 -708 3,806 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,730  3,050  3,556  3,232  150  174  2,830 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,780  3,040  3,558  3,232  150  176  2,818 
Costal Shandong 5,880  3,020  3,562  3,232  150  180  2,792 
Jiangsu 5,920  2,950  3,515  3,232  150  133  2,782 
Guangdong 5,970  2,910  3,493  3,232  150  111  2,770 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,730  3,050  3,441  3,160  150  131  2,884 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,780  3,040  3,442  3,160  150  132  2,873 
Costal Shandong 5,880  3,020  3,444  3,160  150  134  2,850 
Jiangsu 5,920  2,950  3,396  3,160  150  86  2,841 
Guangdong 5,970  2,910  3,374  3,160  150  64  2,830 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,730  3,050  3,470  3,560  150  -240  3,354 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,780  3,040  3,471  3,560  150  -239  3,343 
Costal Shandong 5,880  3,020  3,474  3,560  150  -236  3,319 
Jiangsu 5,920  2,950  3,426  3,560  150  -284  3,310 
Guangdong 5,970  2,910  3,403  3,560  150  -307  3,298 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,880  3,200  3,501  3,500  160  -159  3,399 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,730  3,050  3,357  3,620  160  -423  3,579 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,780  3,040  3,357  3,640  160  -443  3,594 
Boxing, Shandong 5,920  3,040  3,379  3,660  160  -441  3,591 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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