China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 39, 2019)

2019-09-30 www.cofeed.com

I．National stocks

This week (as of Sept. 27), edible palm oil stock totals 549,500 tonnes at domestic ports, down 1.7% from 558,850 tonnes last week and up 100 tonnes or 0.02% from 549,400 tonnes the same period last month, and up 89,400 tonnes or 19.43% from 460,100 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 106,200 tonnes, up 10,400 tonnes or 10.85% from 95,800 tonnes last week.

The demand is declining on the ending of restocking before holiday and the cold weather. RBD palm olein arrivals in the next two week is predicted to be 600,000 tonnes and 500,000 tonnes, and therefore the stocks in ports is possible to rise.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W39	W38	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W39	W38	Change
Tianjin Port	10.3	11.65	-1.35	35.50%	-13.08%	3.4	2.6	0.8
Hebei	0.4	0.55	-0.15	-20.00%	0.00%	0.1	0.15	-0.05
Shandong Port	4.45	3.965	0.485	28.90%	48.33%	1	1.17	-0.17
East China	14.08	16.3	-2.22	-20.67%	-5.82%	4	3.5	0.5
Guangdong	19.9	17.45	2.45	-3.90%	85.63%	1.82	1.88	-0.06
Guangxi	3.27	3.02	0.25	60.29%	21.56%	0.3	0.28	0.02
Fujian	2.55	2.95	-0.4	-12.07%	6.25%	0	0	0
Total：	54.95	55.885	-0.935	0.02%	19.43%	10.62	9.58	1.04

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for Oct this week increase by 50,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 720,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for Nov. this week is unchanged from last week at 620,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate of import volume for Dec. is 570,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2019/9/23	Nov. 2019	557.5	4782	4814	32
2019/9/23	Dec. 2019	562.5	4824	4814	-10
2019/9/24	Oct. 2019	550	4716	4720	4
2019/9/24	Nov. 2019	552.5	4737	4720	-17
2019/9/24	Dec. 2019	560	4801	4720	-81
2019/9/25	Nov. 2019	547.5	4704	4720	16
2019/9/25	Dec. 2019	557.5	4788	4720	-68
2019/9/26	Nov. 2019	545	4683	4726	43
2019/9/26	Dec. 2019	552.5	4747	4726	-21
2019/9/27	Nov. 2019	552.5	4756	4682	-74
2019/9/27	Dec. 2019	560	4819	4682	-137

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2019/9/23	0
2019/9/24	2	Oct	550	4702	2.4
2019/9/25	1	Nov	541	4621	1.2
2019/9/26	0
2019/9/27	0

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