Today (Sept. 30), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean closed lower last Friday, but the loss was limited as China continued buying US soybeans, and a fresh round of high-level trade negotiations would be held between China and the United States in Washington in the week after the National Day holiday. Meal futures post moderate gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, as mills are free of inventory pressure and stalling sales. Spot soybean meal prices increase by 20-40 yuan/tonne from last Friday with lukewarm trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,900-3,010 yuan/tonne in coastal regions (Tianjin 3,010, Shandong 2,980-3,000, Jiangsu 2,920-2,940, Dongguan 2,910-2,920, and Guangxi 2,910-2,930). The inventory of soybean meal will decline with a sharp fall in soybean crush during the National Day holiday, which lasts for seven days from October 1st. Currently, local governments are providing strong support to resume hog production, so the hog amount is likely to pick up from its lowest point, and the demand for soybean meal may also be improved. Soybean meal prices are thus embracing modest rises. But the hog herd is still small with the spread of the African swine fever. Besides, President Donald Trump said that a deal to end the trade war with China was highly possible and could happen sooner than people think. And US soybean harvest is also approaching. These are keeping soybean meal price rises under check. Buyers with adequate stocks can play safe and replenish on the dips. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it settles up 10-30 yuan/tonne at 2,320-2,420 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,420, up 20; Fujian 2,340, up 30). Oil mills will reduce the crush sharply during the National Day, so the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is likely to decrease. Moreover, rapeseed supply is getting tightened due to the unsolved issues between China and Canada. Therefore, rapeseed meal price is supported by these factors. However, the recovery of hog herd will take a while with the spread of African swine fever, and U.S. soybean will be under the pressure of harvesting and marketing after National Day, so the trend of rapeseed meal needs to be taken with caution. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is quoted steadily with some negotiating space today. Quotation at ports: it is priced quoted steadily at 9,000-9,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,300-9,400 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,600-10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 9,900-10,300 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content and 9,500-9,700 for old products. Stocks at port: Huangpu 130,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 37,000 tonnes, Shanghai 82,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 14,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices are stable from foreign merchants today: it is 1,090 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,290-1,310 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,300 USD/tonne. Domestic aquaculture has slow demand for fishmeal, and due to the decreasing hog herd under the spread of the African swine fever, the consumption of in hog feed mixed with fishmeal is also restricted. Moreover, fishmeal is still piling higher at ports, but the market has already replenished for the National Day holiday. These are all bearish to the market. Therefore, fishmeal price is predicted to stay stable with slight declines in the near term.

Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable when cottonseed meal supply is small for the low operation rates of oil mills; and oil mills with no pressure from inventory are in a selling-loath mood; today meals on DCE still see a mild rise, and spot soybean meal goes up 20-40 yuan/tonne. However, the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever and the upside down price of soybean meal from cottonseed meal. And the supply will increase on a rising operation rates after National Day Holiday. All these drag down the market. After holiday, the prices are likely to see a proper decline and buyer can wait and see.