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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 8/10/2019

2019-10-08 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,850  3,100  3,561  4,215  150 -805 4,118 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,060  3,519  4,215  150 -846 4,130 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,050  3,531  4,215  150 -835 4,106 
Jiangsu 5,980  3,010  3,514  4,215  150 -851 4,087 
Guangdong 5,960  2,960  3,471  4,215  150 -894 4,092 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,850  3,100  3,561  4,139  150 -729 4,022 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,060  3,519  4,139  150 -770 4,034 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,050  3,531  4,139  150 -759 4,010 
Jiangsu 5,980  3,010  3,514  4,139  150 -775 3,991 
Guangdong 5,960  2,960  3,471  4,139  150 -818 3,996 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,850  3,100  3,619  3,300  150  169  2,886 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,060  3,577  3,300  150  127  2,899 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,050  3,590  3,300  150  140  2,873 
Jiangsu 5,980  3,010  3,574  3,300  150  124  2,853 
Guangdong 5,960  2,960  3,530  3,300  150  80  2,858 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,850  3,100  3,502  3,236  150  116  2,953 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,060  3,461  3,236  150  75  2,965 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,050  3,472  3,236  150  86  2,942 
Jiangsu 5,980  3,010  3,454  3,236  150  68  2,924 
Guangdong 5,960  2,960  3,411  3,236  150  25  2,928 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,850  3,100  3,531  3,500  150  -119  3,250 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,060  3,490  3,500  150  -160  3,262 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,050  3,501  3,500  150  -149  3,239 
Jiangsu 5,980  3,010  3,484  3,500  150  -166  3,220 
Guangdong 5,960  2,960  3,441  3,500  150  -209  3,225 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,000  3,250  3,560  3,420  160  -20  3,275 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,850  3,100  3,416  3,540  160  -284  3,455 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,800  3,060  3,376  3,560  160  -344  3,490 
Boxing, Shandong 5,950  3,100  3,432  3,580  160  -308  3,485 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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