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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 9/10/2019

2019-10-09 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,120  3,586  4,246  150 -810 4,146 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,120  3,576  4,246  150 -820 4,158 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,080  3,560  4,246  150 -836 4,138 
Jiangsu 6,050  3,040  3,551  4,246  150 -845 4,109 
Guangdong 6,040  2,980  3,502  4,246  150 -894 4,112 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,120  3,586  4,169  150 -733 4,048 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,120  3,576  4,169  150 -743 4,060 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,080  3,560  4,169  150 -759 4,041 
Jiangsu 6,050  3,040  3,551  4,169  150 -768 4,012 
Guangdong 6,040  2,980  3,502  4,169  150 -817 4,014 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,120  3,645  3,324  150  171  2,904 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,120  3,635  3,324  150  161  2,916 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,080  3,619  3,324  150  145  2,896 
Jiangsu 6,050  3,040  3,612  3,324  150  138  2,866 
Guangdong 6,040  2,980  3,562  3,324  150  88  2,868 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,120  3,527  3,260  150  117  2,972 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,120  3,518  3,260  150  108  2,984 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,080  3,501  3,260  150  91  2,965 
Jiangsu 6,050  3,040  3,491  3,260  150  81  2,938 
Guangdong 6,040  2,980  3,441  3,260  150  31  2,940 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,120  3,556  3,500  150  -94  3,239 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,120  3,547  3,500  150  -103  3,250 
Costal Shandong 5,930  3,080  3,530  3,500  150  -120  3,232 
Jiangsu 6,050  3,040  3,521  3,500  150  -129  3,203 
Guangdong 6,040  2,980  3,472  3,500  150  -178  3,206 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,050  3,270  3,584  3,420  160  4  3,265 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,120  3,440  3,540  160  -260  3,445 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,120  3,432  3,560  160  -288  3,480 
Boxing, Shandong 5,970  3,100  3,435  3,580  160  -305  3,481 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.