Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 9/10/2019

2019-10-09 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,900	3,120	3,586	4,246	150	-810	4,146
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,850	3,120	3,576	4,246	150	-820	4,158
Costal Shandong	5,930	3,080	3,560	4,246	150	-836	4,138
Jiangsu	6,050	3,040	3,551	4,246	150	-845	4,109
Guangdong	6,040	2,980	3,502	4,246	150	-894	4,112

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,900	3,120	3,586	4,169	150	-733	4,048
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,850	3,120	3,576	4,169	150	-743	4,060
Costal Shandong	5,930	3,080	3,560	4,169	150	-759	4,041
Jiangsu	6,050	3,040	3,551	4,169	150	-768	4,012
Guangdong	6,040	2,980	3,502	4,169	150	-817	4,014

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,900	3,120	3,645	3,324	150	171	2,904
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,850	3,120	3,635	3,324	150	161	2,916
Costal Shandong	5,930	3,080	3,619	3,324	150	145	2,896
Jiangsu	6,050	3,040	3,612	3,324	150	138	2,866
Guangdong	6,040	2,980	3,562	3,324	150	88	2,868

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,900	3,120	3,527	3,260	150	117	2,972
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,850	3,120	3,518	3,260	150	108	2,984
Costal Shandong	5,930	3,080	3,501	3,260	150	91	2,965
Jiangsu	6,050	3,040	3,491	3,260	150	81	2,938
Guangdong	6,040	2,980	3,441	3,260	150	31	2,940

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,900	3,120	3,556	3,500	150	-94	3,239
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,850	3,120	3,547	3,500	150	-103	3,250
Costal Shandong	5,930	3,080	3,530	3,500	150	-120	3,232
Jiangsu	6,050	3,040	3,521	3,500	150	-129	3,203
Guangdong	6,040	2,980	3,472	3,500	150	-178	3,206

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,050	3,270	3,584	3,420	160	4	3,265
Dalian, Liaoning	5,900	3,120	3,440	3,540	160	-260	3,445
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	5,850	3,120	3,432	3,560	160	-288	3,480
Boxing, Shandong	5,970	3,100	3,435	3,580	160	-305	3,481
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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