I. National stocks
This week (as of Oct. 4), edible palm oil stock totals 536,700 tonnes at domestic ports, down 2.3% from 549,500 tonnes last week and down 42,950 tonnes from 578,950 tonnes the same period last month and up 88,000 tonnes or19.6% from 448,700 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 111,050 tonnes, up 4,850 tonnes or 4.6% from 106,200 tonnes last week.
This week palm oil stock continues falling, but the demand for edible oil market will see an off-season due to the end of National Day and the cold weather, so trading volume of palm oil is severely limited. However, the average monthly import of RBD palm olein is about 550,000 tonnes from October to November, and domestic palm oil stock is predicted to rebound in the late period though relatively slow.
Region
/Port
|
Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）
|
Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
|
W40
|
W39
|
Change
|
M-O-M
|
Y-O-Y
|
W40
|
W39
|
Change
|
Tianjin Port
|
11.45
|
10.3
|
1.15
|
9.60%
|
0.00%
|
3.1
|
3.4
|
-0.3
|
Hebei
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
-0.1
|
0.00%
|
-53.85%
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0
|
Shandong Port
|
3.8
|
4.45
|
-0.65
|
25.40%
|
26.67%
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
East China
|
12.05
|
14.08
|
-2.03
|
-33.05%
|
-15.14%
|
3.6
|
4
|
-0.4
|
Guangdong
|
17.9
|
19.9
|
-2
|
-14.80%
|
68.87%
|
1.95
|
1.82
|
0.13
|
Guangxi
|
3.07
|
3.27
|
-0.2
|
96.20%
|
19.46%
|
0.355
|
0.3
|
0.055
|
Fujian
|
5.1
|
2.55
|
2.55
|
43.66%
|
112.50%
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Total：
|
53.67
|
54.95
|
-1.28
|
-7.30%
|
19.61%
|
11.105
|
10.62
|
0.485
|
Fig. China’s palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for October this week is at 700,000-720,000 tonnes unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 580,000-600,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for November this week is unchanged with last week at 620,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 500,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate for December is 570,000 tonnes unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
III. Margins and Shipments
Date
|
Sailing Schedule
|
CNF
（USD/mT）
|
Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)
|
DCE
(RBM/mT)
|
Import Margin
|
2019/9/30
|
Nov. 2019
|
545
|
4684
|
4664
|
-20
|
2019/9/30
|
Dec. 2019
|
555
|
4767
|
4664
|
-103
|
Date
|
Cargoes
|
Sailing Schedule
|
CNF
（USD/mT）
|
Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)
|
Qty.
（0'000 mT）
|
2019/9/30
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
2019/10/1
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
2019/10/2
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
2019/10/3
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
2019/10/4
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
