Crush: Soybean crush dropped sharply in week 40 (Sept. 28-Oct. 4) as mills shut down for the National Day holiday and some in Rizhao restricted production for environmental protection. Soybean crush at domestic mills totaled 1,155,700 tonnes (meal 913,003 tonnes and oil 219,583 tonnes), down 659,450 tonnes, or 36.33%, from 1815,150 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) was 31.88%, down 18.19 percentage points from 50.07% in the previous week. Soybean crush will stay at a low level this week as most mills have yet resumed production, and is predicted to be around 1.30 mln tonnes this week and rise to around 1.69 mln tonnes in week 42. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 85,084,600 tonnes in the crushing year of 2018/19 (from October 1st, 2018), down 4,785,272 tonnes, or 5.32%, from 89,869,872 tonnes of the same period last year; in 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 62,701,815 tonnes, down 3,970,765 tonnes, or 5.95%, from 66,672,580 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018, according to Cofeed. 

 

Inventory: Imported soybean inventory continues to decrease this week due to few boatloads arriving at ports during the National Day holiday. In the week as of October 4th, imported soybean inventory is 3,810,800 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 286,600 tonnes by 6.99% from 4,097,400 tonnes last week and down by 48.18% from 7,354,000 tonnes of the same period last year. The inventory is predicted to increase slightly next week as mills have cut down soybean crush to 1.10 mln tonnes during the holiday and will maintain it at around 1.30 mln tonnes next week. 

Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline this week with a sharp drop in operation rates. In the week as of October 4th, the inventory totals 584,700 tonnes, down 89,600 tonnes by 13.29% from 674,300 tonnes last week and down by 37.57% from 584,700 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. As most mills will maintain soybean crush at a low level of 1.30 mln tonnes next week, the inventory is predicted to continue to drop accordingly. 

Inventory: Despite the sharp fall in soybean crush, soybean oil inventory continues to pile higher due to slow shipments as the demand is rather weak in the market. On the week as of Oct. 4th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,350,840 tonnes, up 1,690 tonnes by 0.13% from 1,349,150 tonnes last week, up 18,540 tonnes by 1.39% from 1,332,300 tonnes last month, yet down 372,660 tonnes by 21.62% from 1,723,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,361,000 tonnes.