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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 10/10/2019

2019-10-10 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,950  3,120  3,595  4,233  150 -788 4,117 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,110  3,578  4,233  150 -805 4,129 
Costal Shandong 5,940  3,100  3,578  4,233  150 -805 4,119 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,010  3,524  4,233  150 -859 4,098 
Guangdong 6,020  2,980  3,498  4,233  150 -885 4,100 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,950  3,120  3,595  4,168  150 -723 4,035 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,110  3,578  4,168  150 -740 4,047 
Costal Shandong 5,940  3,100  3,578  4,168  150 -740 4,037 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,010  3,524  4,168  150 -794 4,016 
Guangdong 6,020  2,980  3,498  4,168  150 -820 4,018 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,950  3,120  3,655  3,323  150  182  2,890 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,110  3,637  3,323  150  164  2,903 
Costal Shandong 5,940  3,100  3,637  3,323  150  164  2,892 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,010  3,584  3,323  150  111  2,870 
Guangdong 6,020  2,980  3,558  3,323  150  85  2,872 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,950  3,120  3,536  3,259  150  127  2,959 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,110  3,519  3,259  150  110  2,971 
Costal Shandong 5,940  3,100  3,518  3,259  150  109  2,962 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,010  3,463  3,259  150  54  2,941 
Guangdong 6,020  2,980  3,438  3,259  150  29  2,944 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,950  3,120  3,566  3,500  150  -84  3,227 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,110  3,548  3,500  150  -102  3,239 
Costal Shandong 5,940  3,100  3,548  3,500  150  -102  3,229 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,010  3,493  3,500  150  -157  3,208 
Guangdong 6,020  2,980  3,468  3,500  150  -182  3,211 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,100  3,270  3,592  3,420  160  12  3,255 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,950  3,120  3,448  3,540  160  -252  3,435 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,110  3,432  3,560  160  -288  3,470 
Boxing, Shandong 5,980  3,090  3,429  3,580  160  -311  3,479 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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