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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--10/10/2019

2019-10-10 www.cofeed.com
Today (Oct. 10), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The market was upbeat about the import prospect of China after a foreign media reported that China might boost annual purchases of soybeans to 30 million tonnes from 20 million at present, and also worried about a snowstorm into the Midwest that could potentially damage late-mature soybean crops. US soybean thus climbed further higher last night. Meal futures also open higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, but then narrow gains to hover under the previous close. Spot soybean meal prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday in lighter trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,980-3,110 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 3,110, Shandong 3,060-3,070, Jiangsu 3,000-3,030, Dongguan 2,980-3,010, and Guangxi 2,990-3,020).The White House is looking at rolling out a previously agreed currency pact with China as part of an early harvest deal that could also see a tariff increase next week suspended, according to a report by Bloomberg. In addition, soybean meal prices have come under pressure on concerns over the African swine fever and the upcoming marketing of new US soybeans. However, the inventory of soybean meal posted a weekly decline of 6% to 580,000 tonnes with a sharp drop in operation rates during the holiday, with the delivery quantity still limited in some regions. Mills are quite high on prop up prices, which provides soybean meal prices with supports. The market will probably fluctuate to consolidate at present, and participants can focus on the outcome of this round of trade talks, which are again uncertain and will be a key to the market. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises slightly in price today, of which it partially settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,380-2,500 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,380, stable; Guangdong 2,500, stable; Fujian 2,400, stable).The rapeseed supply is getting tightened, for there is no sign of a detente in the relations between China and Canada, so oil mills are likely to reduce the crush and prop up prices. But US soybeans are under the pressure of harvesting and marketing, and it takes some time to recover hog herd due to the lingering African swine fever. Therefore, the rises of rapeseed meal prices are still limited and short-term rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate to stay strong. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is quoted steadily with some rises today. Quotation at ports: it is quoted partially higher by 200 yuan/tonne at 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,400 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 121,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 74,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices are stable from foreign merchants today: it is 1,090 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,290-1,310 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,300 USD/tonne. When people are making replenishment after the holiday, the delivery at ports has been quickened and the inventory is also reducing. Holders are encouraged to prop up prices, so the market tends to a good prospect. But the market is still subdued by tepid demand from domestic aquaculture and slow consumption in hog feed under the ASF. On the whole, the market is predicted to stay stable to consolidate in the near term. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with several declines of 100 yuan/tonne today. The cottonseed meal price are depressed by the increasing supply due to a rise of operation rate, the spread of African swine fever, as well as the demand affected by narrowed price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. However, meals on DCE today continue rising. It is positive to cottonseed meal market and may limit the declines of cottonseed oil prices. On the other hand, short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fall back with fluctuations continuously with the increasing operation rate, so buyers are suggested to buy on immediate demand. And buyers can keep a close eye on the new development of negotiation due to the uncertainties of Sino-US trade war.

(USD $1=CNY 7.07)