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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/10/2019

2019-10-11 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880  3,150  3,606  4,245  150 -789 4,149 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,140  3,602  4,245  150 -793 4,144 
Costal Shandong 5,990  3,130  3,611  4,245  150 -784 4,123 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,547  4,245  150 -848 4,113 
Guangdong 6,020  3,010  3,522  4,245  150 -873 4,115 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880  3,150  3,606  4,199  150 -743 4,091 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,140  3,602  4,199  150 -747 4,086 
Costal Shandong 5,990  3,130  3,611  4,199  150 -738 4,064 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,547  4,199  150 -802 4,055 
Guangdong 6,020  3,010  3,522  4,199  150 -827 4,057 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880  3,150  3,665  3,327  150  188  2,913 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,140  3,661  3,327  150  184  2,908 
Costal Shandong 5,990  3,130  3,671  3,327  150  194  2,885 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,608  3,327  150  131  2,875 
Guangdong 6,020  3,010  3,582  3,327  150  105  2,877 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880  3,150  3,547  3,259  150  138  2,975 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,140  3,543  3,259  150  134  2,971 
Costal Shandong 5,990  3,130  3,551  3,259  150  142  2,950 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,487  3,259  150  78  2,941 
Guangdong 6,020  3,010  3,462  3,259  150  53  2,944 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880  3,150  3,576  3,500  150  -74  3,243 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,140  3,572  3,500  150  -78  3,239 
Costal Shandong 5,990  3,130  3,581  3,500  150  -69  3,218 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,517  3,500  150  -133  3,208 
Guangdong 6,020  3,010  3,492  3,500  150  -158  3,211 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,030  3,300  3,605  3,420  160  25  3,269 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,880  3,150  3,461  3,540  160  -239  3,449 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,900  3,140  3,456  3,560  160  -264  3,470 
Boxing, Shandong 5,950  3,110  3,440  3,580  160  -300  3,485 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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