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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--11/10/2019

2019-10-11 www.cofeed.com
Today (Oct. 11), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

Oilseeds:
  
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Canada soybean with 41% protein is unchanged from yesterday at 4350 yuan/tonne, and Myanmar soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4450 yuan/tonne.With the marketing of China soybean, the ample supply and low confidence of higher offers by port traders are bearish for China's market.The U.S. and China are currently in the midst of high-level trade negotiations in Washington. And according to Bloomberg, Donald Trump says trade talks between the U.S. and China on the first day are “going really well”, and he is set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday. Both US and China delegates are expressing cautious optimism about a partial deal. More US soybean may be imported.Imported soybeans likely maintain stable with weak momentum.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with a rise of 0.02-0.04 yuan/kg. The trading volume of cottonseed increases with the rising operation rate. Besides, delivered price of Xinjiang cottonseed at inland oil mills also goes up due to the rising freight from Xinjiang to inland. Nevertheless, the rises of cottonseed price are limited by increasing supply of new cottonseed. The market price is a little bit changeable at present, but the declines may not be too much due to favorable crush margin. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.

Oils:

Summary: US soybeans closed fractionally lower last night on the back of a sharp loss in corn futures due to the bearish USDA report in October, although the report on the other hand slashed US soybean production and stocks. Oil futures fluctuate to adjust on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In domestic spot markets, soybean oil increases by 10-30 yuan/tonne, but palm oil is partially down by 10 yuan/tonne. As many buyers have replenished in the past few days, the trading is predicted to further decrease today. Mills are propping up prices with support of low soybean crush in recent two weeks and the influence of the bullish USDA report. As for the US-China trade negotiation, President Donald Trump thought it was going very well in the first day, and delegates from both sides were upbeat about reaching a partial deal. In particular, a possible currency deal has sent the offshore exchange rate of Chinese yuan to near 7.10, and traders are bullish on it to be 6.95. This is bearish to domestic oil market. In addition, US farmers are about to harvest soybean crops and put them on the market. In the meantime, domestic oil market has huge supplies with higher and higher soybean oil stocks and substantial palm oil imports in the coming two months, which is weighing down the market. Overall, the market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate at a narrow range in the short term, and participants can focus on the outcome of US-China trade negotiations.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at5,950-6,130 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 5,950-5,960, Rizhao traders 6,020, Zhangjiagang traders 6,130, and Guangzhou traders 6,050-6,060). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4,730-4,900 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, partially down 10 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 4,830-4,850, flat; Rizhao traders yet offered; Zhangjiagang traders 4,850, flat; Guangzhou traders 4,730-4,740, down 10; and Xiamen yet offered).
  
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up 2-30 yuan at 7,340-7,480 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,360; Guangdong 7,360, up 20; and Guangxi 7,480). Chinese importers remain unwilling to buy rapeseed from Canada amid unsettled issues between the two countries, which leads to a tightening supply of rapeseed and supports rapeseed oil prices in China. But the demand for rapeseed oil has affected by the difference in its price with those of soybean oil and palm oil. And importers have bought substantial palm oil cargoes for shipments in the next two months. Domestic oil market now has huge supplies while the demand is going slack. Rapeseed oil market may be affected and fluctuate frequently. Buyers are suggested not to drive up price too much. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with several declines of 50 yuan/tonne today. The cottonseed oil prices are depressed by the increasing supply due to a rise of operation rate, an off-season period for oils, as well as the limited consumption for cottonseed oil as blending oils. But the USDA report in October brings supportive news. Spot soybean oil increases by 10-30 yuan/tonne today, and most cottonseed oil companies are willing to raise prices. On the other hand, short-term cottonseed oil is likely to fall back with fluctuations with the continuous increasing operation rate, so buyers are suggested to buy on immediate demand. Besides, the Sino-US high-level consultation is scheduled to hold in Washington from Oct. 10 to 11, and buyers can keep a close eye on the new development.

(USD $1=CNY 7.07)