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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 14/10/2019

2019-10-14 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,820  3,140  3,586  4,276  150 -840 4,203 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,130  3,584  4,276  150 -842 4,196 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,120  3,586  4,276  150 -840 4,184 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,020  3,524  4,276  150 -902 4,162 
Guangdong 5,970  2,980  3,489  4,276  150 -938 4,167 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,820  3,140  3,586  4,230  150 -794 4,145 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,130  3,584  4,230  150 -796 4,137 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,120  3,586  4,230  150 -794 4,125 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,020  3,524  4,230  150 -856 4,104 
Guangdong 5,970  2,980  3,489  4,230  150 -892 4,108 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,820  3,140  3,645  3,364  150  131  2,975 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,130  3,643  3,364  150  129  2,967 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,120  3,645  3,364  150  131  2,954 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,020  3,584  3,364  150  70  2,932 
Guangdong 5,970  2,980  3,548  3,364  150  34  2,937 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,820  3,140  3,528  3,255  150  123  2,984 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,130  3,526  3,255  150  121  2,977 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,120  3,527  3,255  150  122  2,966 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,020  3,464  3,255  150  59  2,945 
Guangdong 5,970  2,980  3,429  3,255  150  24  2,950 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,820  3,140  3,557  3,500  150  -93  3,257 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,130  3,555  3,500  150  -95  3,250 
Costal Shandong 5,900  3,120  3,556  3,500  150  -94  3,239 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,020  3,494  3,500  150  -156  3,218 
Guangdong 5,970  2,980  3,459  3,500  150  -191  3,222 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,970  3,290  3,587  3,420  160  7  3,281 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,820  3,140  3,443  3,540  160  -257  3,461 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,850  3,130  3,440  3,560  160  -280  3,480 
Boxing, Shandong 5,950  3,110  3,440  3,580  160  -300  3,485 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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