Today (Oct. 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: China and the U.S. reached a phase one deal which would take three to five weeks to be papered and signed, and President Donald Trump said that he would have a plan to meet Chinese leaders at the APEC summit in November. US soybeans thus closed with sharp gains last Friday. But meal futures fluctuate to edge lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today as the trade detente is bearish to domestic market. But soybean meal prices drop more slightly by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading, as mills are propping up prices on account of low soybean meal stocks and growing costs for soybean imports. Specifically, the price settles at 3,000-3,130 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 3,130, Shandong 3,070-3,100, Jiangsu 3,000-3,070, Dongguan 2,980-3,010, and Guangxi 3,020-3,040). Due to low operation rates for soybean crush around the National Day holiday, mills in North China almost have no soybean meal and some are still limiting the quantity of delivery. And the demand for soybean meal may increase thanks to handsome margins in breeding. Data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed a decline of 3% in hog herd in September, against 9.8% in the previous month. Besides, soybean import cost is raised by US soybean prices which go higher due to lower stock estimates in USDA report and the trade detente. The overall soybean meal market will probably post narrow fluctuations to consolidate in the short term, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 10-40 yuan/tonne at 2,380-2,480 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,480, down 40; Fujian not offered). US soybeans have been harvested and gone marketing. And in the fourth quarter aquaculture will be fading, so there is little improvement in demand. Hence, these factors will dampen rapeseed meal prices. However, the supply of rapeseed is still tightening under the pending issues between China and Canada, so rapeseed crush will decrease sharply. Last Friday, rapeseed meal inventory fell by 13% to 29,000 tonnes in coastal areas. Besides, oil mills prop up prices, which could limit the declines. Hence, short-term rapeseed meal market may fluctuate at a narrow range. So buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price was stable last Saturday. It was 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,400 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 119,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 71,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 11,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices are stable from foreign merchants today: it is 1,090 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,290-1,310 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,300 USD/tonne. Feed plants are making replenishment after the holiday, which has quickened delivery and lessened port inventory, so holders are encouraged to keep their quotations stable. But it is still hard to improve the demand for fishmeal in aquaculture in a short time, and the ASF also limits the hog feed consumption, which continue to damp the market. On the whole, the market is predicted to steady in consolidation in the near term. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some declines of 20-100 yuan/tonne today. Oil mills continue boosting operation rate, and the demand is affected by narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. In addition, China has reached a preliminary trade deal with US, but it will take about five weeks to get a pact written and signed. Pres. Trump claimed to meet Chinese leaders at the APEC summit in November. The trade war has been easing, which is negative for domestic meal price. Meals on DCE today decline slightly with fluctuations, and spot soybean meal partially down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Moreover, substantial progress was made in this round of trade negotiation. Therefore, all these factors depress the price of cottonseed meal. However, local goverments vigorously boost the recovery of pig production. The month-on-month decrease of hog herd narrows to 3% from 9.8% last month, according to the Ministry of Agriculture data. Thus, the demand may be improved, which will limit the fall of rapeseed meal. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal will fall back, and buyers can wait and see.