China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 41, 2019)

2019-10-15 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

This week (as of Oct. 11), edible palm oil stock totals 542,700 tonnes at domestic ports, up 1.1% from 536,700 tonnes last week and down 24,800 tonnes or 4.4% from 567,500 tonnes the same period last month and up 94,400 tonnes or 21% from 448,300 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 128,000 tonnes, up 16,950 tonnes or 15.3% from 111,050 tonnes last week.

This week palm oil stock stops falling and rebounds. And the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil continues narrowing, of which it settles at 1,213 yuan/tonne down by 22 yuan/tonne from 1,235 yuan/tonne before National Day. However, the market has entered a phased off-season of demand, and the temperature has been dropping since mid-to-late October, so the demand is dampened by lower blending shares of local palm oil. This week, the trading volume is still low, and it totals 6,000 tonnes unchanged with National Day, while monthly import of RBD palm olein is about 50,000-55,000 tonnes from Oct. to Nov. It is predicted that palm oil stock will increase slowly in the late period.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W41	W40	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W41	W40	Change
Tianjin Port	11.05	11.45	-0.4	-0.90%	1.84%	2.6	3.1	-0.5
Hebei	0.75	0.3	0.45	7.10%	15.38%	0.2	0.1	0.1
Shandong Port	4.58	3.8	0.78	71.50%	108.18%	2.05	2	0.05
East China	13	12.05	0.95	-17.50%	-9.41%	5.55	3.6	1.95
Guangdong	16.95	17.9	-0.95	-14.60%	39.85%	2.05	1.95	0.1
Guangxi	3.24	3.07	0.17	-14.30%	37.29%	0.4	0.355	0.045
Fujian	4.7	5.1	-0.4	64.90%	104.35%	0	0	0
Total：	54.27	53.67	0.6	-4.40%	21.06%	12.8	11.105	1.695

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for October this week is at 670,000 tonnes down by 30,000 tonnes from last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for November this week is unchanged with last week at 620,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 500,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate for December is 570,000 tonnes unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2019/10/8	Oct. 2019	550	4728	4716	-12
2019/10/8	Nov. 2019	557.5	4791	4716	-75
2019/10/8	Dec. 2019	570	4897	4716	-181
2019/10/9	Nov. 2019	552.5	4760	4792	32
2019/10/9	Dec. 2019	557.5	4802	4792	-10
2019/10/10	Nov. 2019	555	4762	4792	30
2019/10/10	Dec. 2019	560	4805	4792	-13
2019/10/11	Nov. 2019	557.5	4775	4826	51
2019/10/11	Dec. 2019	565	4839	4826	-13

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2019/10/9	1	Nov	555	4719	1.2
2019/10/11	1	Nov	552.5	4733	1.6
2019/10/11	1	Nov	555	4754	1.2
2019/10/11	1	Nov	552	4729	1.2

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