Price: The market for imported soybeans is affected by the marketing of China soybeans. Besides, the U.S. and China are currently in the midst of high-level trade negotiations in Washington. And according to Bloomberg, Donald Trump said trade talks between the U.S. and China on the first day were “going really well”, and he was set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Both US and China delegates were expressing cautious optimism about a partial deal. With the optimistic outlook of US-China trade relationship, more US soybean may be imported. Add the bumper harvest of South America soybeans and the imported soybeans for distribution are bearish. With the domination of bearish factors, short-term prices likely maintain stable with weak momentum. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war and the domestic demand.

Crush: The overall operation rate has fractionally rallied this week (Oct. 5-11) , but remains at a low level as some mills have yet resumed production after the holiday. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,294,400 tonnes (meal 1,022,576 tonnes and oil 245,936 tonnes), up 138,700 tonnes, or 12.00%, from 1,155,700 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 35.70%, up 3.82 percentage points from 31.88% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to return to a normal level in the coming two weeks, to 1.72 mln tonnes next week and 1.85 mln tonnes that following week. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 1,954,800 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,036,586 tonnes, or 34.6%, from 2,991,385 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 63,996,215 tonnes, down 4,424,965 tonnes, or 6.46%, from 68,421,180 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks fractionally increase this week, as some mills are not back to production after the holiday and soybean crush remains at a low level of around 1.30 mln tonnes. In the week as of October 11th, imported soybean stocks total 4,087,900 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 277,100 tonnes by 7.27% from 3,810,800 tonnes last week and down by 41.87% from 7,032,900 tonnes of the same period last year. The stocks will probably remain little changed because mills will resume their crush back to around 1.72 mln tonnes next week and to around 1.85 mln tonnes that following week. 

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 29 cargoes with 1.879 mln tonnes this week, a total of 35 cargoes with 2.335 mln tonnes for October so far. The import is predicted to be 115 cargoes with 7.5071 mln tonnes for October, 7.40 mln tonnes for November and 7.10 mln tonnes for December, and 6.0 mln tonnes for January, 2020. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Oct. 8-12, 2019), spot soybean meal further sees a rise. As of this Friday, the price is 3000-3130 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 110-150 yuan/tonne from National Day.

Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline this week with low soybean crush in oil mills. In the week as of October 11th, the inventory totals 525,100 tonnes, down 59,600 tonnes by 10.19% from 584,700 tonnes last week and down by41.20% from 893,100 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. The inventory is predicted to slightly increase because mills will resume soybean crush to a normal level in the coming two weeks. 

Price: This week (Oct. 8-12, 2019), soybean oil stops declining and rebound. As of this Friday, Main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6020-6190 yuan/tonne, up 50-200 yuan/tonne from National Day.

Inventory: With rising operation rates in oil mills, soybean oil stocks also continue to increase, but the increment is relatively small. On the week as of Oct. 11th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,353,630 tonnes, up 2,790 tonnes by 0.21% from 1,350,840 tonnes last week, up 23,630 tonnes by 1.78% from 1,330,000 tonnes last month, yet down 414,370 tonnes by 23.44% from 1,768,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,371,880 tonnes.