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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 15/10/2019

2019-10-15 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,830  3,140  3,588  4,297  150 -859 4,227 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,880  3,150  3,606  4,297  150 -841 4,215 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,120  3,590  4,297  150 -857 4,205 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,030  3,532  4,297  150 -915 4,188 
Guangdong 5,940  3,000  3,499  4,297  150 -948 4,201 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,830  3,140  3,588  4,255  150 -817 4,174 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,880  3,150  3,606  4,255  150 -799 4,162 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,120  3,590  4,255  150 -815 4,152 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,030  3,532  4,255  150 -873 4,135 
Guangdong 5,940  3,000  3,499  4,255  150 -906 4,147 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,830  3,140  3,647  3,351  150  146  2,956 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,880  3,150  3,665  3,351  150  164  2,943 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,120  3,649  3,351  150  148  2,933 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,030  3,592  3,351  150  91  2,915 
Guangdong 5,940  3,000  3,558  3,351  150  57  2,928 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,830  3,140  3,530  3,273  150  107  3,005 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,880  3,150  3,547  3,273  150  124  2,993 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,120  3,530  3,273  150  107  2,984 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,030  3,472  3,273  150  49  2,968 
Guangdong 5,940  3,000  3,439  3,273  150  16  2,979 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,830  3,140  3,559  3,500  150  -91  3,255 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,880  3,150  3,576  3,500  150  -74  3,243 
Costal Shandong 5,920  3,120  3,560  3,500  150  -90  3,234 
Jiangsu 5,990  3,030  3,502  3,500  150  -148  3,218 
Guangdong 5,940  3,000  3,469  3,500  150  -181  3,229 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,980  3,290  3,589  3,420  160  9  3,279 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,830  3,140  3,445  3,540  160  -255  3,459 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,880  3,150  3,461  3,560  160  -259  3,474 
Boxing, Shandong 5,950  3,130  3,456  3,580  160  -284  3,485 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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