Today (Oct. 15), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean closed further higher last night on concern of the winter weather over the weekend that could cut soybean production in the Midwest. Meal futures post moderate rises on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices partially increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne, except that Yihai Kerry mills offer lower by 10-30 yuan/tonne, and the trading remains lukewarm. Specifically, the price settles at 3,000-3,140 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 3,140, Shandong 3,090-3,100, Jiangsu 3,020-3,070, Dongguan 3,000-3,030, and Guangxi 3,020-3,040). Total stocks of soybean meal in China dropped by 10% weekly to 520,000 tonnes due to low operation rates around the National Day holiday, and some mills still limit the quantity for delivery for out of stock. In the demand side, farmers are making handsome profits in animal and poultry breeding, and local governments are striving for resuming hog production, for which hog amount fell more slowly by 3% in September, compared to 9.8% in August, according to data China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. And soybean import cost has also been lifted by a sharp rise in US soybean prices which came after a surprising lower stock estimate in USDA October report and a trade detente. But China will buy substantial US farm products amid the trade detente, and buyers are cautious of current high prices of soybean meal; hence, soybean meal prices will have limited upward space. Overall, the market is predicted to fluctuate at the narrow range to consolidate in the short run before a huge increase in stocks. Buyers with stocks in hand can stay on the sideline at the moment.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal stays stable with slight declines in price today, of which it partially settles down 10 yuan/tonne at 2,350-2,480 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,480, stable; Fujian not offered). There are market rumors that some private enterprises buy Canadian rapeseed. Besides, domestic demand for meals is still poor, and African swine fever is still spreading. And aquatic farming is fading as the weather gets colder. Moreover, a large quantity of US soybeans, sorghum, barley and DDGS may flood into China’s market with a detente in the trade war. Additionally, US soybeans are under pressure of large quantities of harvesting and marketing. Therefore, rapeseed meal prices are dampened by all these factors above. On the other hand, rapeseed crush will keep falling in coastal areas amid the pending issues between China and Canada, which will limit the declines. Hence, short-term rapeseed meal market may mainly fluctuate strongly at a narrow range. Buyers can stay on the sideline or buy on immediate demand.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price was stable yesterday. It was 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 10,100-10,400 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 114,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 69,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices are stable from foreign merchants today: it is 1,090 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,290-1,310 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,300 USD/tonne. Domestic aquaculture has delicate demand for fishemal and the ASF also limits the hog feed consumption, which continue to damp the market. But feed plants are making replenishment after the holiday, which has quickened delivery and lessened port inventory, so holders are encouraged to keep their quotations stable. On the whole, the market is predicted to steady in the near term. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some declines of 50-100 yuan/tonne today. The price of cottonseed meal is depressed by rising operation rate and poor demand affected by narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. However, local goverments vigorously boost the recovery of pig production. The month-on-month decrease of September hog herd narrows to 3% from 9.8% last month, according to the Ministry of Agriculture data. Thus, the demand may be improved. Meals on DCE today rises moderately, and spot goods partially up by 10-20 yuan/tonne. On the whole, the fall of rapeseed meal will be limited by these factors. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal will fall back with fluctuations, and buyers can wait and see.