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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 16/10/2019

2019-10-16 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,160  3,617  4,299  150 -832 4,213 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,890  3,130  3,592  4,299  150 -857 4,215 
Costal Shandong 5,980  3,100  3,585  4,299  150 -864 4,193 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,547  4,299  150 -902 4,181 
Guangdong 6,000  3,000  3,510  4,299  150 -939 4,189 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,160  3,617  4,241  150 -774 4,139 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,890  3,130  3,592  4,241  150 -799 4,142 
Costal Shandong 5,980  3,100  3,585  4,241  150 -806 4,120 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,547  4,241  150 -844 4,108 
Guangdong 6,000  3,000  3,510  4,241  150 -881 4,115 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,160  3,676  3,358  150  168  2,947 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,890  3,130  3,651  3,358  150  143  2,949 
Costal Shandong 5,980  3,100  3,645  3,358  150  137  2,927 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,608  3,358  150  100  2,914 
Guangdong 6,000  3,000  3,570  3,358  150  62  2,922 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,160  3,558  3,263  150  145  2,976 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,890  3,130  3,533  3,263  150  120  2,978 
Costal Shandong 5,980  3,100  3,525  3,263  150  112  2,958 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,487  3,263  150  74  2,946 
Guangdong 6,000  3,000  3,450  3,263  150  37  2,953 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,160  3,588  3,500  150  -62  3,239 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,890  3,130  3,562  3,500  150  -88  3,241 
Costal Shandong 5,980  3,100  3,555  3,500  150  -95  3,220 
Jiangsu 6,030  3,040  3,517  3,500  150  -133  3,208 
Guangdong 6,000  3,000  3,480  3,500  150  -170  3,215 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,050  3,310  3,616  3,420  160  36  3,265 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,900  3,160  3,472  3,540  160  -228  3,445 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,890  3,130  3,446  3,560  160  -274  3,472 
Boxing, Shandong 5,980  3,130  3,461  3,580  160  -279  3,479 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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