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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 17/10/2019

2019-10-17 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,130  3,607  4,271  150 -814 4,160 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,150  3,632  4,271  150 -789 4,148 
Costal Shandong 6,050  3,110  3,606  4,271  150 -815 4,141 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,030  3,545  4,271  150 -876 4,139 
Guangdong 6,060  2,990  3,514  4,271  150 -908 4,139 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,130  3,607  4,213  150 -756 4,087 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,150  3,632  4,213  150 -731 4,075 
Costal Shandong 6,050  3,110  3,606  4,213  150 -757 4,068 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,030  3,545  4,213  150 -818 4,065 
Guangdong 6,060  2,990  3,514  4,213  150 -850 4,065 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,130  3,667  3,336  150  181  2,901 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,150  3,693  3,336  150  207  2,889 
Costal Shandong 6,050  3,110  3,667  3,336  150  181  2,881 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,030  3,606  3,336  150  120  2,878 
Guangdong 6,060  2,990  3,574  3,336  150  88  2,878 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,130  3,547  3,241  150  156  2,932 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,150  3,572  3,241  150  181  2,921 
Costal Shandong 6,050  3,110  3,546  3,241  150  155  2,914 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,030  3,485  3,241  150  94  2,912 
Guangdong 6,060  2,990  3,453  3,241  150  62  2,912 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,130  3,577  3,470  150  -43  3,184 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,150  3,602  3,470  150  -18  3,173 
Costal Shandong 6,050  3,110  3,576  3,470  150  -44  3,166 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,030  3,515  3,470  150  -105  3,163 
Guangdong 6,060  2,990  3,483  3,470  150  -137  3,163 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,120  3,280  3,603  3,430  160  13  3,264 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,970  3,130  3,459  3,550  160  -251  3,444 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,020  3,150  3,483  3,570  160  -247  3,459 
Boxing, Shandong 6,040  3,120  3,462  3,590  160  -288  3,480 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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