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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 18/10/2019

2019-10-18 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,150  3,625  4,268  150 -793 4,154 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,150  3,638  4,268  150 -780 4,137 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,140  3,632  4,268  150 -786 4,135 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,050  3,561  4,268  150 -857 4,135 
Guangdong 6,100  3,010  3,537  4,268  150 -881 4,125 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,150  3,625  4,222  150 -747 4,096 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,150  3,638  4,222  150 -734 4,079 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,140  3,632  4,222  150 -740 4,077 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,050  3,561  4,222  150 -811 4,077 
Guangdong 6,100  3,010  3,537  4,222  150 -835 4,067 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,150  3,685  3,343  150  192  2,908 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,150  3,699  3,343  150  206  2,890 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,140  3,693  3,343  150  200  2,887 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,050  3,622  3,343  150  129  2,887 
Guangdong 6,100  3,010  3,598  3,343  150  105  2,877 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,150  3,565  3,248  150  167  2,939 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,150  3,578  3,248  150  180  2,923 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,140  3,571  3,248  150  173  2,921 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,050  3,500  3,248  150  102  2,921 
Guangdong 6,100  3,010  3,476  3,248  150  78  2,911 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,150  3,595  3,470  150  -25  3,182 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,150  3,608  3,470  150  -12  3,166 
Costal Shandong 6,060  3,140  3,602  3,470  150  -18  3,163 
Jiangsu 6,060  3,050  3,531  3,470  150  -89  3,163 
Guangdong 6,100  3,010  3,506  3,470  150  -114  3,154 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,130  3,300  3,621  3,430  160  31  3,262 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,980  3,150  3,477  3,550  160  -233  3,442 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,150  3,488  3,570  160  -242  3,453 
Boxing, Shandong 6,050  3,140  3,480  3,590  160  -270  3,478 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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