Today (Oct. 18), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Canada soybean with 41% protein is unchanged from yesterday at 4100 yuan/tonne, Myanmar soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 4450 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 3470 yuan/tonne. Imported soybeans are bearish when the supply increases greatly on the marketing of China soybean with bumper harvest, and more US soybean will be imported amid the ease of US-China trade relationship. The quotations from port traders move side ways with weak trend for lack of confidence. Short-term imported soybeans for distribution are likely to be steady with weak momentum.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with a decline of 0.02-0.04 yuan/kg today. Oil mills have not stockpiled cottonseed yet. Mills mostly buy on immediate demand, so the trading volume is limited. Besides, the delivery is affected by rain in parts of Xinjiang. Thus, the cottonseed market is dragged down by these factors. Moreover, South Xinjiang cottonseed still not goes marketing in huge quantities. With the increasing supply of new cottonseed, short-term cottonseed prices mainly fall back with fluctuations, but the declines may not be too much. Buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.

Summary: US soybeans climbed on the snowfall in the US production states and easing China-US relationship as a Bloomberg report said that economic and trade teams from the two nations were maintaining close communication to negotiate on the specific text of the agreement. But the news is negative to domestic market, so oil futures drop at a narrow range on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, despite some moderate rises in early trading. In the spot markets, soybean oil sees a partial rise of 10-40 yuan/tonne, and palm oil down partially by 10-30 yuan/tonne, with tepid trading. As mills will boost their capacity utilization to a high level in the next two weeks, soybean oil stocks will follow to go upward slowly. Soybean crushing margins are rising on the DCE, to over 200 yuan/tonne for cargoes from Brazil and US PNW, so Chinese importers are lured to continue their purchases, for which soybean imports will likely go higher than expected in the fourth quarter. This will continue to influence the trend of the oil market. But there has been stronger trading than it should be in soybean oil market after the holiday, so that mills still have a backlog of contracts to be finished. US soybean futures now maintain a strengthening trend supported by a huge cut in production and stocks estimates, so soybean import cost is pushed higher in China, which in turn helps limit downside space of the oil market. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, oil market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate frequently at the narrow range in the short term, and participants need to remain cautious. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,040-6,160 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial rise of 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6070-6080, Rizhao traders 6,100, Zhangjiagang traders 6,160, and Guangzhou traders 6,140). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4,750-4,920 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a partial decline of 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 4,860-4,870, down 10; Rizhao traders 4,900-4,920, down 30; Zhangjiagang traders 4,860, flat; Guangzhou traders 4,750, flat; and Xiamen yet offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil declines in price today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan/tonne at 7,280-7,400 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian yet offered; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 7,400, down 30). The demand is subdued in the market as rapeseed oil has a big price gap with soybean oil and palm oil. Domestic oil market now has liberal supplies but periodical slack purchases. China is going to quicken its purchases of US agricultural products, a move that will likely send soybean imports higher than expected in the fourth quarter. And US farmers are expanding their soybean harvests now and will put them on the market soon. Rapeseed oil market is thus forced to fall at a narrow range. But mills in coastal regions have lower and lower stocks of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which is mainly because of the stalemate between China and Canada, so there is also limited downside space for rapeseed oil prices. Overall, the market will probably fluctuate at the high level, and buyers can wait and see at the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil stays stable today. Spot soybean oil rises by 10-40 yuan/tonne further today, which strengthens the willingness of oil plants to raise prices. But oil mills continue boosting operation rate, and the demand for oils gradually goes into an off-season, so the consumption of cottonseed oil as blending oil is limited. Therefore, cottonseed oil market is weighed down by all these factors. And short-term cottonseed oil is predicted to stay stable with some declines. Buyers can stay on the sideline or buy on immediate demand. In addition, Sino-US trade delegations are maintaining close communication on the text of agreement, which has a good prospect in bilateral trade relations, according to Bloomberg. And buyers can keep a close eye on the latest development of negotiation.