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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 21/10/2019

2019-10-21 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,210  3,674  4,274  150 -750 4,159 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,190  3,670  4,274  150 -754 4,145 
Costal Shandong 6,080  3,170  3,660  4,274  150 -765 4,138 
Jiangsu 6,110  3,100  3,610  4,274  150 -814 4,131 
Guangdong 6,120  3,060  3,580  4,274  150 -844 4,128 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,210  3,674  4,228  150 -704 4,101 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,190  3,670  4,228  150 -708 4,087 
Costal Shandong 6,080  3,170  3,660  4,228  150 -719 4,079 
Jiangsu 6,110  3,100  3,610  4,228  150 -768 4,072 
Guangdong 6,120  3,060  3,580  4,228  150 -798 4,070 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,210  3,734  3,359  150  225  2,925 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,190  3,730  3,359  150  221  2,910 
Costal Shandong 6,080  3,170  3,720  3,359  150  211  2,903 
Jiangsu 6,110  3,100  3,671  3,359  150  162  2,895 
Guangdong 6,120  3,060  3,641  3,359  150  132  2,892 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,210  3,614  3,273  150  191  2,968 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,190  3,609  3,273  150  186  2,954 
Costal Shandong 6,080  3,170  3,599  3,273  150  176  2,948 
Jiangsu 6,110  3,100  3,549  3,273  150  126  2,941 
Guangdong 6,120  3,060  3,519  3,273  150  96  2,938 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,210  3,644  3,470  150  24  3,180 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,190  3,639  3,470  150  19  3,166 
Costal Shandong 6,080  3,170  3,629  3,470  150  9  3,158 
Jiangsu 6,110  3,100  3,579  3,470  150  -41  3,151 
Guangdong 6,120  3,060  3,550  3,470  150  -70  3,149 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,140  3,360  3,670  3,430  160  80  3,260 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,990  3,210  3,526  3,550  160  -184  3,440 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,050  3,190  3,520  3,570  160  -210  3,453 
Boxing, Shandong 6,060  3,200  3,530  3,590  160  -220  3,476 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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