According to Cofeed, on the week as of October 18th, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts are as follows:

 

Soybean oil stocks decline this week, as mills maintain a fair delivery speed with good trading after the National Day holiday. In the week as of Oct. 18th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,341,470 tonnes, down 12,160 tonnes by 0.9% from 1,353,630 tonnes last week, up 13,770 tonnes by 1.04% from 1,327,700 tonnes last month, and down 482,230 tonnes by 26.44% from 1,823,700 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,388,100 tonnes.

 

Nevertheless, mills continue to pick up their operation rates for soybean crush, so soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,727,800 tonnes (meal 1,364,962 tonnes and oil 328,282 tonnes), up 433,400 tonnes, or 33.49%, from 1,294,400 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 47.66%, up 11.96 percentage points from 35.70% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the upward trend in the coming two weeks, to 1.75 mln tonnes next week and 1.85 mln tonnes that following week. With the sustaining recovery in soybean crush, the decline in soybean oil stocks will certainly be affected, although mills now have a backlog of November contracts. 

 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years