I. National stocks
This week (as of Oct. 18), edible palm oil stock totals 572,100 tonnes at domestic ports, up 5.4% from 542,700 tonnes last week and up 13,250 tonnes or 2.4% from 558,850 tonnes the same period last month and up 106,500 tonnes or 31.33% from 435,600 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 149,800 tonnes, up 21,800 tonnes or 17% from 128,000 tonnes last week.
This week palm oil stock further rises on increase of palm oil arrivals. And as of this Friday, the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil has enlarged, of which it settles up 52 yuan/tonne at 1,265 yuan/tonne from 1,213 yuan/tonne last week. However, oil futures on DCE fall this week, which affect buyers to enter market. In addition, domestic oils market is in an off-season. Besides, with the decrease of temperature, blending palm oil is also curbed. This week, the trading volume totals only 12,100 tonnes.
Due to the profitable import, palm oil importers are still buying cargos, and the quantity of palm oil arrived at ports is also rising. According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the monthly import volume of RBD palm olein from October to November is about 550,000 tonnes. As the weather gets colder, demand for palm oil is shrinking. It is predicted that palm oil stock will maintain an upward trend.
Region
/Port
|
Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）
|
Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
|
W42
|
W41
|
Change
|
M-O-M
|
Y-O-Y
|
W42
|
W41
|
Change
|
Tianjin Port
|
11.05
|
11.05
|
0
|
-5.10%
|
15.71%
|
3.1
|
2.6
|
0.5
|
Hebei
|
0.65
|
0.75
|
-0.1
|
18.20%
|
62.50%
|
0.15
|
0.2
|
-0.05
|
Shandong Port
|
4.13
|
4.58
|
-0.45
|
4.20%
|
111.79%
|
1.93
|
2.05
|
-0.12
|
East China
|
16.6
|
13
|
3.6
|
1.80%
|
17.73%
|
7.35
|
5.55
|
1.8
|
Guangdong
|
16.9
|
16.95
|
-0.05
|
-3.15%
|
24.08%
|
2.1
|
2.05
|
0.05
|
Guangxi
|
3.98
|
3.24
|
0.74
|
31.80%
|
77.68%
|
0.35
|
0.4
|
-0.05
|
Fujian
|
3.9
|
4.7
|
-0.8
|
32.20%
|
129.41%
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Total：
|
57.21
|
54.27
|
2.94
|
2.40%
|
31.33%
|
14.98
|
12.8
|
2.18
|
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for October this week is 670,000 tonnes unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 550,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for November this week is unchanged with last week at 620,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 500,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate for December is 570,000 tonnes unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
III. Margins
Date
|
Sailing Schedule
|
CNF
（USD/mT）
|
Duty Paid
(RBM/mT)
|
DCE
(RBM/mT)
|
Import Margin
|
2019/10/14
|
Nov. 2019
|
555
|
4722
|
4682
|
-40
|
2019/10/14
|
Dec. 2019
|
560
|
4764
|
4682
|
-82
|
2019/10/15
|
Nov. 2019
|
552.5
|
4733
|
4682
|
-51
|
2019/10/15
|
Dec. 2019
|
560
|
4797
|
4682
|
-115
|
2019/10/16
|
Nov. 2019
|
555
|
4749
|
4810
|
61
|
2019/10/16
|
Dec. 2019
|
565
|
4833
|
4810
|
-23
|
2019/10/17
|
Nov. 2019
|
557.5
|
4772
|
4800
|
28
|
2019/10/17
|
Dec. 2019
|
565
|
4835
|
4800
|
-35
|
2019/10/18
|
Dec. 2019
|
567.5
|
4842
|
4808
|
-34
|
2019/10/18
|
Jan.2020
|
585
|
4989
|
4808
|
-181
|
