Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 22/10/2019

2019-10-22 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,970	3,220	3,678	4,282	150	-754	4,174
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	3,220	3,693	4,282	150	-739	4,155
Costal Shandong	6,080	3,200	3,683	4,282	150	-749	4,148
Jiangsu	6,080	3,120	3,620	4,282	150	-812	4,148
Guangdong	6,120	3,060	3,580	4,282	150	-852	4,138

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,970	3,220	3,678	4,225	150	-697	4,102
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	3,220	3,693	4,225	150	-682	4,083
Costal Shandong	6,080	3,200	3,683	4,225	150	-692	4,076
Jiangsu	6,080	3,120	3,620	4,225	150	-755	4,076
Guangdong	6,120	3,060	3,580	4,225	150	-795	4,066

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,970	3,220	3,738	3,374	150	214	2,949
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	3,220	3,754	3,374	150	230	2,929
Costal Shandong	6,080	3,200	3,744	3,374	150	220	2,922
Jiangsu	6,080	3,120	3,681	3,374	150	157	2,922
Guangdong	6,120	3,060	3,641	3,374	150	117	2,911

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,970	3,220	3,618	3,271	150	197	2,970
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	3,220	3,633	3,271	150	212	2,952
Costal Shandong	6,080	3,200	3,622	3,271	150	201	2,945
Jiangsu	6,080	3,120	3,559	3,271	150	138	2,945
Guangdong	6,120	3,060	3,519	3,271	150	98	2,936

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	5,970	3,220	3,648	3,470	150	28	3,184
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	3,220	3,663	3,470	150	43	3,166
Costal Shandong	6,080	3,200	3,653	3,470	150	33	3,158
Jiangsu	6,080	3,120	3,590	3,470	150	-30	3,158
Guangdong	6,120	3,060	3,550	3,470	150	-70	3,149

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,120	3,370	3,675	3,430	160	85	3,264
Dalian, Liaoning	5,970	3,220	3,531	3,550	160	-179	3,444
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,050	3,220	3,544	3,570	160	-186	3,453
Boxing, Shandong	6,090	3,200	3,534	3,590	160	-216	3,470
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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