Price: The market for imported soybeans is affected by the marketing of China soybeans with bumper harvest.Moreover, China Foreign Ministry confirms that China and the U.S. have made substantial progress in many aspects, and laid an important foundation for a phase one agreement, and China plans to speed up its purchases of US agricultural products. According Bloomberg, Chinese officials are working on the text of an agreement on trade in close contact with U.S. negotiators, and have begun discussions on the next stage. China Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said Both sides ultimate goal for the negotiations was to end the trade war, canceled all additional tariffs. More US soybeans will be imported. Add that the global soybean supply is huge amid the bumper harvest in South America, and the soybeans for distribution are bearish.With the domination of bearish factors, short-term prices for imported soybeans likely maintain stable with weak momentum.Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war and the domestic demand.

Crush: Mills continue to pick up their operation rates for soybean crush this week. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,727,800 tonnes (meal 1,364,962 tonnes and oil 328,282 tonnes), up 433,400 tonnes, or 33.49%, from 1,294,400 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, the operation rate (capacity utilization) is 47.66%, up 11.96 percentage points from 35.70% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to continue the upward trend in the coming two weeks, to 1.75 mln tonnes next week and 1.85 mln tonnes that following week. 

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 7.01 mln tonnes in October at current utilization rate, below the 7.55 mln tonnes in September and also below 8.26 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year, according to Cofeed. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 3,682,600 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,277,285 tonnes, or 25.75%, from 4,959,885 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 65,724,015 tonnes, down 4,665,665 tonnes, or 6.62%, from 70,389,680 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks fractionally decrease this week, as soybean crush returns to a normal level of 1.72 mln tonnes. In the week as of October 18th, imported soybean stocks total 3,922,700 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 165,200 tonnes by 4.04% from  4,087,900 tonnes last week and down by 44.58% from 7,078,400 tonnes of the same period last year. The stocks will probably continue to reduce a soybean crush will increase to 1.75 mln tonnes and 1.85 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, respectively. 

 

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 29 cargoes with 1.87 mln tonnes this week, a total of 63 cargoes with 4.105 mln tonnes for October so far. The import is predicted to be 115 cargoes with 7.5071 mln tonnes for October, 8.0 mln tonnes for November and 8.10 mln tonnes for December, and 6.0 mln tonnes for January, 2020. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Oct. 14-18, 2019), spot soybean meal sees a slight rise again.As of this Friday, the price is 3000-3160 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10-20 yuan/tonne from last week.

Inventory: The inventory has risen slightly this week as soybean crush returns to a normal level of 1.72 mln tonnes. In the week as of October 18th, the inventory totals 573,800 tonnes, up 48,700 tonnes by 9.27% from 525,100 tonnes last week yet down by 25.49% from 770,200 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. The inventory is predicted to continue the growth next week as mills will gradually recover the crush to a normal level.

 

Price: This week (Oct. 14-18, 2019), soybean oil further rises. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 6070-6160 yuan/tonne, mostly up 20-80 yuan/tonne, some down 10 yuan/tonne.

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks decline this week, as mills maintain a fair delivery speed with good trading after the National Day holiday. In the week as of Oct. 18th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,341,470 tonnes, down 12,160 tonnes by 0.9% from 1,353,630 tonnes last week, up 13,770 tonnes by 1.04% from 1,327,700 tonnes last month, and down 482,230 tonnes by 26.44% from 1,823,700 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,388,100 tonnes.