Today (Oct. 22), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures fell last night on quickening harvest progress, as the USDA report said 46% of the soybean crop was harvested, up from 26% a week ago and above the market forecast of 42%. Meal futures continue gains but move below the previous close on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up by 10-30 yuan/tonne in weaker trading. Specifically, the price settles at 3,060-3,300 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 3,300, Shandong 3,200-3,220, Jiangsu 3,140-3160, Dongguan 3,060-3,130, and Guangxi 3,110-3,130). The harvest progress may be hampered by the rainy and cooler weather in some US production regions, and exports are brisk as the US and China have reached a preliminary deal, so US soybean futures will not drop easily and will maintain its strengthening trend at a narrow range. In addition, the overall margin for livestock breeding is quite decent in China now. And its local governments are also working hard to support hog production, under which hog feed production has seen a month-on-month increase of 10.4% in September, according to Cofeed. In the soybean meal market, the trading totaled nearly 400,000 tonnes yesterday, but its stocks are quite low at present, especially in North China, where mills have set strict delivery quantities. Mills and traders are screaming for higher prices, so the market will maintain its strong trend in the near term. But President Donald Trump said that the U.S. and China were making progress in economic and trade negotiations, and China will buy substantial US agricultural products. Meanwhile, China’s soybean imports will average above 8 mln tonnes in both November and December, and domestic mills have picked up their operation rates due to higher crush margins, sending soybean meal stocks to increase by 9% last week to 570,000 tonnes. These will keep soybean meal market in check, and participants can pay some attention. Buyers with enough stocks can wait and see at the moment. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal stays stable with some fluctuations in price today, of which it settles at 2,380-2,500 yuan/tonne with a fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,380, down 20; Guangdong 2,500, stable; Fujian not offered). The rapeseed supply is getting tightened, for there is no sign of a detente in the relations between China and Canada, so oil mills are likely to prop up prices. But the China-U.S. trade war is easing, and China will buy plenty of U.S. Agricultural products. Moreover, the harvest of US soybeans begins to speed up, and monthly soybean arrived at ports will increase to over 8 mln tonnes in November and December. In addition, African swine fever is still spreading. As the weather gets colder, aquaculture will be fading, so there is not much improvement in terminal demand. Therefore, rapeseed meal rises are curbed by these factors, and short-term prices will fluctuate to stay strong. The rally of futures prices slows down, so buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal price is stable today. It is 9,100-9,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content, 9,400-9,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and10,100-10,500 yuan/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 100,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 61,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is 1,110 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content and 1,310-1,330 USD/tonne for super SD with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard SD with 65% protein content is 1,100 USD/tonne, and super SD with 68% protein content at 1,300 USD/tonne. It is hard to boost the demand for fishmeal in domestic aquaculture industry, and due to the influence of the African swine fever, the consumption of feed is also slow. Fishmeal prices thus go stable today. But feed plants are still making replenishment, helping quicken the delivery at port, and there are no many fishmeal stocks at some domestic ports. Domestic traders with stocks in hand have stronger sales sentiment now, in addition to firm prices from Peru. These are all bullish to domestic market. On the whole, the market is predicted to steady in the near term. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some rises of 20-100 yuan/tonne today. Meals on DCE today rise up, and spot soybean meal increases 10-30 yuan/tonne. Besides, the livestock and poultry industry is profitable as a whole, and the government fully stands strong with recovery of breeding. According to survey by Cofeed, the production of pig feed in September increased by 10.4% from August. Hence, cottonseed meal market is supported by all these factors. However, the demand is affected by narrowed price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal, which may limit the rises. Therefore, short-term prices are likely to rebound with fluctuations, and buyers can make replenishment on the dips.