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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 23/10/2019

2019-10-23 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,220  3,693  4,278  150 -735 4,150 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,120  3,200  3,691  4,278  150 -737 4,133 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,692  4,278  150 -736 4,121 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,160  3,665  4,278  150 -763 4,126 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,607  4,278  150 -821 4,109 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,220  3,693  4,240  150 -697 4,102 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,120  3,200  3,691  4,240  150 -699 4,085 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,692  4,240  150 -698 4,073 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,160  3,665  4,240  150 -725 4,078 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,607  4,240  150 -783 4,061 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,220  3,754  3,379  150  225  2,935 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,120  3,200  3,752  3,379  150  223  2,918 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,754  3,379  150  225  2,905 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,160  3,726  3,379  150  197  2,910 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,669  3,379  150  140  2,892 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,220  3,633  3,276  150  207  2,958 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,120  3,200  3,630  3,276  150  204  2,942 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,631  3,276  150  205  2,931 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,160  3,603  3,276  150  177  2,935 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,545  3,276  150  119  2,919 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,220  3,663  3,470  150  43  3,166 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,120  3,200  3,660  3,470  150  40  3,149 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,662  3,470  150  42  3,137 
Jiangsu 6,150  3,160  3,634  3,470  150  14  3,142 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,576  3,470  150  -44  3,126 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,200  3,370  3,688  3,430  160  98  3,248 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,050  3,220  3,544  3,550  160  -166  3,428 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,120  3,200  3,539  3,570  160  -191  3,439 
Boxing, Shandong 6,150  3,200  3,544  3,590  160  -206  3,458 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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