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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 24/10/2019

2019-10-24 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,220  3,690  4,295  150 -756 4,176 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,150  3,200  3,697  4,295  150 -749 4,147 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,692  4,295  150 -753 4,143 
Jiangsu 6,130  3,130  3,637  4,295  150 -808 4,152 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,607  4,295  150 -838 4,131 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,220  3,690  4,236  150 -697 4,102 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,150  3,200  3,697  4,236  150 -690 4,073 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,692  4,236  150 -694 4,068 
Jiangsu 6,130  3,130  3,637  4,236  150 -749 4,078 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,607  4,236  150 -779 4,056 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne,Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,220  3,750  3,341  150  259  2,892 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,150  3,200  3,758  3,341  150  267  2,862 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,754  3,341  150  263  2,857 
Jiangsu 6,130  3,130  3,699  3,341  150  208  2,867 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,669  3,341  150  178  2,844 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Oct. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,220  3,629  3,261  150  218  2,944 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,150  3,200  3,635  3,261  150  224  2,916 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,631  3,261  150  220  2,912 
Jiangsu 6,130  3,130  3,576  3,261  150  165  2,921 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,545  3,261  150  134  2,901 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,220  3,659  3,470  150  39  3,170 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,150  3,200  3,666  3,470  150  46  3,142 
Costal Shandong 6,170  3,190  3,662  3,470  150  42  3,137 
Jiangsu 6,130  3,130  3,607  3,470  150  -13  3,147 
Guangdong 6,220  3,070  3,576  3,470  150  -44  3,126 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,180  3,370  3,685  3,430  160  95  3,252 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,030  3,220  3,541  3,550  160  -169  3,432 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,150  3,200  3,544  3,570  160  -186  3,433 
Boxing, Shandong 6,180  3,220  3,565  3,590  160  -185  3,452 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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