Today (Oct. 24), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybean prices are steady today, among which Canada soybeans with 41% protein are unchanged from yesterday at 3980 yuan/tonne, and Ukraine soybean is unchanged from yesterday at 3400 yuan/tonne. Imported soybean market is affected by the ample supply of domestic soybeans. Moreover, US soybean imports will further increase when China soybean crushers have purchased at least three cargoes of US soybeans, totally about 190,000 tonnes, after the Chinese government released more tax-free quotas to a new batch of crushers for purchasing US-origin soybeans this week. Port traders are bearish on market outlook, which is negative to China market. Short-term imported soybeans for distribution are likely to be steady with weak momentum.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with a rise of 0.01-0.05 yuan/kg. Oil mills begin to stockpile cottonseed, and the trading volume increases. Besides, there are not many North Xinjiang cottonseeds, and South Xinjiang cottonseeds have not gone market in huge quantities yet, so some ginning mills are reluctant to sale at current level. Hence, cottonseed market is buoyed by these factors. But the increasing supply of cottonseed also limits price rises. Therefore, short-term price probably continues rebounding fractionally. Buyers can make replenishment on the dips.

Summary: US soybeans fell on an accelerating crop harvest pace and the forecast for sustained improving weather, and oil futures all declined in early trading on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, and then gradually erase the losses. In the spot markets, soybean oil mostly drops by 20-40 yuan/tonne and palm oil partially down by 10-20 yuan/tonne, with few deals for spot contracts, but some purchases upon low-level forward basis. China’s monthly soybean imports are expected to be over 8 mln tonnes in both November and December. And soybean meal stocks are quite low at present, so mills are likely to raise soybean crush to 1.85 mln tonnes next week in order to ensure supply. Moreover, DCE crush margins for soybeans from South America and US PNW have rallied to 240-270 yuan/tonne, and Argentine crude soybean oil also nearly posts import margins. These factors will limit the upward space of soybean meal, and have added certain bearish sentiment. But as of yesterday, soybean oil market has been trading well for six days in row, and mills now have a backlog of contracts in November and December. Besides, buyers are expected to start preparation for the New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival from late November. Therefore, the oil market will have little downside space and will stay relatively strong. As DCE oil futures are in the adjustment, buyers can wait or buy on immediate demand.  

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6,180-6,250 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, mostly down 20-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 6,150-6,160, Rizhao traders 6,170, Zhangjiagang traders 6,230, and Guangzhou traders 6,200). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 4,880-5,070 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, partiallydown 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders4,970-4,980, down 20; Rizhao traders 5,070, down 10; Zhangjiagang traders 5,000, flat; Guangzhou traders 4,880; and Xiamen yet offered).

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil declines in price today, of which it settles down 20-50 yuan/tonne at 7,260-7,400 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian yet offered; Guangdong 7,260; and Guangxi 7,400, down 20). The demand for rapeseed oil is affected by its enlarged price gap with soybean oil and palm oil. Domestic oil market is in adequate supply but in slack demand at present. And China’s monthly soybean imports are expected to be over 8 mln tonnes in both November and December. Therefore, rapeseed oil market is dragged to fluctuate and decline. But rapeseed and its products are still supported by the tensions between China and Canada, and domestic supply is still tight as there is no rapeseed import for some mills, so there is limited downside space for rapeseed oil market. The overall market may swing frequently at the high level, and buyers can wait at the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with some rises of 50-90 yuan/tonne today. The trading situation after National Day is better than expected, so factories basically have no stock in hand. Besides, oil mills in Xiajin halt the operation due to environmental protection, so the supply of cottonseed oil declines. Hence, cottonseed oil market is lifted by these factors. But on the other hand, the rises are restricted by limited consumption for cottonseed oil as blending oil. Furthermore, spot soybean oil mostly down by 20-40 yuan/tonne, and palm oil partially down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Therefore, short-term cottonseed oil price may fluctuate to stay strong. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and not chase up prices too high.